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A new poll released on May 21 shows a narrowing gap between the top two presidential candidates as the election nears. Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party leads with 46%, followed closely by Kim Moon-soo of the ruling People Power Party at 41%, while Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party stands at 10%.

The poll, conducted by the Korea Opinion Public Reputation Analysis (KOPRA) on May 20 and commissioned by Asia Today, surveyed 1,003 adults nationwide. The gap between Lee and Kim — 5 percentage points — falls within the poll’s ±3.1% margin of error, suggesting a competitive race. Notably, progressive voters (80%) are showing stronger unity behind Lee compared to conservative voters (72%) supporting Kim.

Minor candidates trailed with minimal support: Kwon Young-guk of the Democratic Labor Party and independent Hwang Kyo-ahn each drew 1%, while independent Song Jin-ho registered no support. Respondents indicating no preference or uncertainty totaled 2%.

Compared to KOPRA’s previous survey on May 17, Lee’s support dropped by 2 percentage points (from 48% to 46%), while Kim inched up 1 point (from 40% to 41%). Lee Jun-seok also gained one point, rising from 9% to 10%. Analysts suggest these shifts reflect the impact of the presidential TV debate hosted by the National Election Debate Commission on May 18.

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Lee’s support has steadily declined from 50% since early May (poll conducted May 4–5), while Kim’s backing has grown from 33% over the same period.

By age group, Lee held the lead among voters in their 40s (56%), 50s (55%), and 60s (49%), while Kim dominated the 70+ demographic (62%). Younger voters were evenly split, with Lee and Kim nearly tied among those in their 20s and 30s.

Regionally, Lee led in Incheon/Gyeonggi (52%), Gwangju/Jeolla (66%), and Gangwon/Jeju (54%). Kim topped support in Seoul (46%), Daejeon/Sejong/Chungcheong (48%), and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (50%).

Lee garnered overwhelming support from Democratic Party loyalists (96%) and strong backing from The Rebuilding Korea Party (78%). Kim was the dominant choice among People Power Party supporters (90%) and also led among New Reform Party voters (29%) and those backing other minor conservative groups (58%).

Among swing voters, Lee held a slight edge with 43% support compared to Kim’s 37%. Ideologically, Lee claimed 80% of progressives and 43% of moderates, while Kim received 72% of conservatives and 37% of moderates.

The poll used automated response system (ARS) calls to mobile random digit dialing (RDD). It had a response rate of 7.7% (1,003 completed out of 13,088 calls). Weighting was applied based on gender, age, and region using April 2025 resident registration data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. Full details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.