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As the official campaign for the June 3 presidential election begins, support for People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo is surging. According to a poll conducted on May 13 by the Korea Opinion and Reputation Analysis Institute (KOPRA) at the request of Asia Today, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party leads with 47%, while Kim Moon-soo follows closely with 39%, just 8 percentage points behind. The results suggest that conservative voters, previously disoriented by martial law controversies and impeachment debates, are beginning to consolidate behind Kim as the presidential race heats up.

Kim’s support jumped by a significant 19 percentage points compared to a previous survey conducted by the same institute on May 9. Analysts say he absorbed nearly all of the 18% support previously held by former Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who is no longer in the race.

In contrast, Lee's support declined slightly by 1 percentage point from the previous week. As a result, the gap between the two frontrunners has narrowed dramatically from 28 points to just 8 in a span of four days. If the current trend continues, Kim could be poised for a "golden cross"—a reversal of standings in the polls.

Meanwhile, Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party, the sole candidate representing reform-minded conservatives, came in third with 8%, marking a 2-point gain from the previous poll. When combined, the support for Kim and Lee Jun-seok reaches 47%, putting them neck and neck with Lee Jae-myung.

By political affiliation, centrist voters—seen as a key swing bloc—are leaning toward Lee Jae-myung, with 47% support. Kim Moon-soo received 37% and Lee Jun-seok 11%. Among self-identified conservatives, 65% supported Kim, while 12% backed Lee Jun-seok. On the progressive side, Lee Jae-myung garnered overwhelming support at 79%, compared to just 13% for Kim.

Regionally, the Daejeon-Sejong-Chungcheong area showed no dominant preference, with Kim at 45%, Lee at 43%, and Lee Jun-seok at 8%. In Seoul, Lee Jae-myung led with 46% against Kim’s 38%, while in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region, Kim edged out Lee with 44% to 41%.

Age-based data showed sharp contrasts. Among voters in their 50s, Lee Jae-myung had strong support at 62%, whereas voters aged 70 and above overwhelmingly favored Kim at 63%. In the 20s demographic, Lee led with 41% to Kim’s 21%, while among those in their 60s, Kim was ahead with 52% compared to Lee’s 41%. No age group showed a gap narrower than 10 points, underscoring a clear generational divide in candidate preference.

The poll was conducted using an automated response system (ARS) via wireless random digit dialing (RDD) and surveyed 1,004 adults nationwide. It has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The response rate was 7.8%, with 1,004 respondents out of 12,942 contacts. The results were weighted by gender, age, and region according to population data from South Korea's Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of April 2025. Full details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.