China's old-age dependency ratio, which measures the burden of supporting people aged 65 and older, has surpassed its child dependency ratio for the first time. In simple terms, the country's elderly population now outnumbers its children. The figures also suggest that China has grown old before becoming rich.

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A grandfather and his grandson living in a rural village in Langfang, Hebei Province, near Beijing. The image appears to illustrate the major demographic transition China faces as its population ages. / People's Daily

According to an Oct. 29 report by the Global Times, the English-language sister publication of the Communist Party's official newspaper People's Daily, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently reported in its China Statistical Yearbook that the country's old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1% last year, exceeding the child dependency ratio of 22.0%.

The old-age dependency ratio refers to the population aged 65 and older as a percentage of the working-age population, defined as those aged 15 to 64. The child dependency ratio measures the population aged 0 to 14 relative to the same working-age group. In other words, for every 100 working-age people in China last year, there were approximately 23.1 elderly people and 22 children to support.

This marked the first time China's old-age dependency ratio exceeded its child dependency ratio since national census records began in 1953. According to the Global Times, the old-age dependency ratio, which stood at around 8.0% in 1982, has risen sharply amid rapid population aging, reaching 15.0% in 2016, 20.8% in 2021 and 22.8% in 2024.

As a result, China's population aged 65 and older reached 223.65 million last year, accounting for 15.9% of the total population. By contrast, the population aged 0 to 14 stood at 212.76 million, or 15.1% of the total, leaving 10.89 million fewer children than elderly people.

Population aging is often viewed negatively. However, it does not necessarily have to be seen as entirely unfavorable, particularly given the rapid expansion of consumer markets catering to older people. This trend is already evident in China, where the silver economy reached 10 trillion yuan (approximately 2,001 trillion won) last year.

Nevertheless, China needs to take proactive measures to prepare for its aging population. Strengthening its multi-pillar pension system and establishing a long-term care insurance system are particularly urgent priorities. The country also needs to address disparities in elderly care services in rural areas.

With the birth rate already at a low level, China also needs to expand subsidies and welfare benefits to encourage childbirth and increase the availability of affordable childcare services.

In short, with the demographic trend now difficult to reverse, China must find ways to overcome the challenges through effective policy measures.

                                                                                                            Hong Soon-do