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Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) held a ceremony at its headquarters in Sacheon, South Gyeongsang Province, on Oct. 28 to celebrate the completion of the Marine Attack Helicopter (MAH) system development project. Approximately 150 officials attended the event, including KAI President Kim Jong-chul, Jeong Jae-jun, head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration's Conventional Capabilities Program Bureau, and Kwon Tae-kyun, head of the Marine Corps' Force Planning Office. / Courtesy of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration

A state-run research institute has warned that if the United States negatively assesses China's influence in South Korea, military intelligence sharing between the two allies could be restricted and the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) could be delayed. The assessment requested by the U.S. Congress could become a factor in determining the level of trust underpinning South Korea-U.S. security cooperation.

According to a report by Park Sang-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), released on Oct. 28, the Armed Services Committees of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives recently requested that the Department of War investigate the Chinese Communist Party's malign influence in South Korea. The report assessed that although the request is not legally binding, the department is highly likely to give it considerable weight and carry it out.

The Senate requested an assessment of human intelligence (HUMINT) activities involving U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), national security risks and South Korea-U.S. security cooperation. The House called for the assessment to cover not only the risks posed by China's malign influence to USFK's HUMINT activities and U.S. defense, but also threats to U.S. defense from the growth of Chinese technology companies in South Korea, possible measures the South Korean government could take and their potential consequences.

The report suggested that if the assessment concludes China's influence does not pose a serious threat, U.S. trust in South Korea could be strengthened. Conversely, it warned that a negative assessment could have repercussions for measures to protect USFK, military intelligence sharing and the OPCON transfer.

The report first raised the possibility that Korean information and communications technology companies doing business with the U.S. military could be subject to scrutiny as part of efforts to protect USFK. It also found that restrictions on the scope and level of military intelligence sharing between South Korea and the United States could affect the effectiveness of combined operations.

In particular, the report warned that the verification burden could increase during the OPCON transfer process. Because a South Korean general would command the Future Combined Forces Command after the transfer, the United States could reassess whether sensitive information could be securely managed under a South Korean-led command structure.

The report focused on the possibility that China's influence could become a factor in tightening the evaluation criteria for existing OPCON transfer conditions rather than being added as a new condition. If verification requirements for the Future Combined Forces Command's Full Operational Capability (FOC) and Full Mission Capability (FMC) become more stringent, the burden on the South Korean military to demonstrate its combined command capabilities could increase, potentially delaying the transfer timetable.

The report also projected indirect effects on South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence cooperation and the sharing of nuclear-related information. It noted that access permissions could become stricter in joint defense technology research, which relies heavily on data, while wartime logistics support, supply chains, defense industry cooperation, and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) cooperation could also be affected.

The report also raised the possibility that South Korea could face greater difficulties in managing relations with China as it responds to the U.S. assessment. If South Korea tightens regulations involving China in response, Beijing could interpret the move as joining U.S. efforts to contain China and exert diplomatic pressure, the report said.

However, the report also suggested that the assessment could provide an opportunity to objectively measure China's influence in South Korea. It could allow the issue, which has often been dominated by political disputes and pro-China versus anti-China divisions rather than fact-finding, to be examined using quantitative evidence.

                                                                                                              Lee Han-sol