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/ Hana Securities

Hana Securities analyzed on the 20th that the market capitalization of SK Hynix has chased up to 95% of Samsung Electronics, and the semiconductor polarization in the domestic stock market has soared to an all-time high. Accordingly, the firm explained that caution is needed as the entire Kospi could be shaken in the process of this concentration unwinding.

Lee Jae-man, head of the Global Investment Analysis Department at Hana Securities, released a 'Hwasubun Strategy' report on this day, stating, "Last week, SK Hynix's market cap rose to 95% compared to Samsung Electronics (excluding preferred cars), showing an extreme polarization phenomenon." Lee pointed out, "It is also necessary to keep in mind that a short-term correction in the Kospi appeared in the process of this ratio declining after peaking at 93% at the end of May 2026," noting that the narrowing or widening gap between the two large-cap semiconductor stocks is directly linked to the volatility of the entire index.

This concentration phenomenon is also confirmed in the volatility indicators of the overall stock market. Lee stated, "Entering June, the Kospi 200 Volatility Index (VKOSPI) recorded 90 points, surpassing the peak during the global financial crisis (89 points)." As the background behind the expanding volatility, he cited "an unprecedentedly high profit growth rate (Kospi 12-month forward operating profit growth rate of 237% year-on-year)," adding, "While this builds up expectations, concerns about missing profit estimates and passing the peak of the growth rate could also be formed."

Structural factors are also increasing volatility. The number of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) related to domestic stocks increased from 536 in January 2025 to 615 at the end of May 2026, with ETFs tracking specific industries and sectors growing faster than index-type ones. In particular, leveraged ETFs increased by 14 within a month to record 43. Lee explained, "The impact of stock rebalancing within these ETFs inevitably grows larger."

He compared the current phase to the second half of 1999. At that time, following three benchmark interest rate hikes by the Fed, "the concentration toward momentum factors intensified, splitting returns into +15% for growth stocks and -2% for value stocks," and the number of outperforming sectors in the S&P 500 decreased from five to two: tech and industrials. Lee analyzed, "In a high interest rate phase, a concentration phenomenon appears in sectors or stocks whose stock prices are rising," adding that even within the same leading sector, "companies with rising operating profit margins maintained high stock price returns."

Based on this, Hana Securities presented strengthening profit momentum, maintaining high profit growth rate forecasts, and expectations of rising operating profit margins as criteria for stock selection. As corresponding stocks, the firm picked Broadcom, Micron, SanDisk, Vertiv, and Danaher in the S&P 500, and Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hanwha Aerospace, Hyosung Heavy Industries, Hyundai Rotem, and POSCO Future M in the Kospi.

                                                                                                             Shim Jun-bo