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Workers at a construction site in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Oct. 5, 2026. /EPA-Yonhap

Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is expected to surpass Indonesia's this year, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The forecast marks a reversal from the IMF's outlook six months earlier in April, as Vietnam continues to record rapid growth driven by export-oriented manufacturing and foreign investment. However, some experts caution against overstating the significance of the projected overtaking, as the gap between the two countries remains narrow enough for exchange rate fluctuations to reverse their rankings, while Indonesia's overall economy remains much larger and Vietnam still trails Thailand by a considerable margin.

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on Wednesday, the IMF projected in its October World Economic Outlook that Vietnam's nominal GDP per capita would rise 8.9% from last year to $5,259 (approximately 7.06 million won) this year, surpassing Indonesia's $5,153 (approximately 6.92 million won). The figure would be nearly double Vietnam's level a decade ago. If the forecast materializes, Vietnam would rank fifth among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand.

The projection reverses the IMF's April forecast, which had placed Indonesia ahead of Vietnam for this year. According to IMF data, Vietnam's GDP per capita stood at $4,829 (approximately 6.49 million won) last year, about $250 (approximately 340,000 won) below Indonesia's $5,078 (approximately 6.82 million won). The IMF expects Vietnam to maintain its narrow lead next year, with GDP per capita reaching $5,659 (approximately 7.6 million won), compared with Indonesia's $5,550 (approximately 7.45 million won).

Experts cited export-oriented manufacturing, foreign investment in high-value-added industries such as electronics, and large-scale public infrastructure projects as key drivers of Vietnam's rapid growth. According to figures released by Vietnam's National Statistics Office on Oct. 3, the country's GDP grew 9.95% year-on-year in the third quarter, its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022, approaching the double-digit growth target set by the country's leadership. Second-quarter growth was also revised upward to 8.81%. Indonesia's growth rate, meanwhile, has remained around 5%.

However, Vietnam's projected lead amounts to just $106 (approximately 142,000 won) this year and $109 (approximately 146,000 won) next year. Ha Hoang Hop, chairman of the Hanoi-based think tank VietKnow, noted that GDP per capita is affected not only by economic growth but also by inflation and exchange rate movements. He warned that changes in exchange rates could reverse the rankings in nominal U.S. dollar terms. Thailand's daily newspaper The Nation also reported that weakness in the Indonesian rupiah had lowered the country's dollar-denominated figures.

In terms of overall economic size, Indonesia remains approximately 2.7 times larger, with its GDP projected to reach $1.48 trillion (approximately 1,988 trillion won) this year, compared with Vietnam's $542 billion (approximately 728 trillion won).

The gap with Thailand, which ranks fourth in ASEAN in GDP per capita, is considerably wider. Vietnam has set a goal of raising its GDP per capita to approximately $8,500 (about 11.42 million won), roughly Thailand's current level, by 2030. However, Hop described this as a medium-term possibility rather than an imminent certainty.

Economic consultant Raymond Mallon, a former senior economic adviser on Vietnam at the World Bank, also said Vietnam remained "a considerable distance behind" Thailand. Mallon said that if Thailand's growth remained at 2% to 3% while Vietnam maintained 8% growth, Vietnam could catch up around the mid-2030s. However, he considered such a scenario unlikely, expecting Thailand's economic performance to improve.

Some analysts also see advantages for Vietnam over Thailand in manufacturing. Mallon pointed to Vietnam's larger share of emerging industries such as electronics and semiconductors, supported by substantial foreign direct investment (FDI). He also identified high literacy rates, strong basic education and an inexpensive, adaptable workforce as key strengths underpinning Vietnam's growth. Nevertheless, Vietnam's heavy dependence on exports leaves it vulnerable to external shocks, including U.S. tariffs, given that the United States is its largest export market.

                                                                                                               Jeong Ri-na