0
Busan Mayor Park Heong-joon (left) and lawmaker Joo Jin-woo launch their primary campaign offices in Busan on March 28. / Courtesy of each campaign

Ahead of the June 3 local elections, concerns are growing within and around the People Power Party about a potential “again 2018” scenario. Analysts say the current situation resembles the 2018 local elections, citing high approval ratings early in the administration, an electoral landscape favorable to the ruling party, and a trend of candidates distancing themselves from the party leader.

Political observers note similarities between the current landscape and the 2018 elections, when the liberal camp swept all regions except Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Jeju, marking the largest victory for the Democratic Party since the introduction of nationwide local elections in 1995.

Within the People Power Party, some predict a significant disadvantage, with estimates suggesting losses in up to 14 out of 16 major metropolitan and provincial races. This marks a stark contrast to the previous local elections, when conservatives dominated most regions outside Gyeonggi, Honam, and Jeju.

The traditionally conservative stronghold of Daegu is also seen as a potential battleground, particularly if former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum enters the race as a Democratic Party candidate.

The current political climate mirrors 2018, when former President Moon Jae-in enjoyed approval ratings of 70–80% early in his term, boosted by major diplomatic events such as inter-Korean summits.

Similarly, Lee has maintained approval ratings in the mid-60% range, supported by economic achievements such as the “KOSPI 5000” milestone.

Tensions within the conservative camp are also drawing comparisons. In 2018, some candidates distanced themselves from then-party leader Hong Joon-pyo, and similar patterns are emerging now under current leader Jang Dong-hyeok.

Several candidates, particularly in the Seoul metropolitan area, have reportedly avoided joint campaign appearances with Jang. Figures such as Oh Se-hoon and Bae Hyun-jin have taken cautious or critical stances toward his leadership.

Some candidates have even opted to campaign in white jackets instead of the party’s traditional red, symbolizing a deliberate effort to distance themselves from the party leadership.

Analysts warn that the People Power Party may face a difficult election, with internal discord and leadership controversies potentially amplifying voter backlash.

Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said the party is showing “parallel patterns” with 2018, adding that visible resistance to the party leader signals a broader erosion of public support.