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/ Source: Yonhap News

The Board of Audit and Inspection (BAI) said Thursday that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s plan to increase medical school enrollment by 2,000 students a year was effectively produced through “crude, back-of-the-envelope” math rather than a structured policy process. The audit found that the figure stemmed from a simple division of estimated future doctor shortages, without sufficient consideration of regional needs, specialty imbalances or the medical field’s capacity to absorb new trainees.

According to the audit report released on November 27, then–Health Minister Cho Kyoo-hong briefed former president Yoon in June 2023 on a plan to increase medical school seats by “500 a year.” Yoon rejected the proposal twice, insisting the quota should be “increased significantly.”

Amid repeated pushback from the presidential office, then–senior presidential secretary for state affairs Lee Kwan-seop proposed a “one-time increase of 2,000 students.” The government subsequently unveiled a plan in February 2024 to expand medical school admissions by 2,000 each year from 2025 to 2029.

The number “2,000,” the audit found, came from dividing the estimated shortage of 10,000 doctors by the five years during which the government intended to push the reform. The shortage estimate—produced by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), the Korea Development Institute (KDI), and Seoul National University—was mechanically converted into an annual quota without analyzing regional distribution, specialty demand, teaching capacity, or hospital-system absorption limits.

Lee reportedly told auditors that the calculation “was not coordinated directly with former president Yoon,” though the audit states it secured testimony indicating Yoon was determined to “resolve the issue within his term.”

The BAI also dismissed speculation that the number had been influenced by fortune-teller “Cheon Gong,” stating that “the first person to raise ‘2,000’ was former secretary Lee” and finding no evidence of outside intervention.