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OPEC logo. / Reuters-Yonhap

OPEC+, a group of major oil-producing countries, has decided to maintain its December crude oil production targets at current levels. The decision has reinforced market expectations that further policy adjustments will not take place until next year.

According to Reuters on Nov. 1 (local time), OPEC said in a statement that seven key members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — had reached the agreement during a virtual meeting that day.

Monthly production adjustments by OPEC+ are currently led by these countries, excluding the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which withdrew in May.

Gulf oil producers have been gradually increasing exports that were disrupted for months by the war in Iran, but most countries are still producing below their targets.

A ministerial meeting involving all 21 member countries is scheduled for Nov. 29, when the framework for country-specific production quotas for 2027 is expected to be determined.

"Today's decision was the easy one," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at energy consultancy Rystad Energy. "The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework."

Markets are closely watching the possibility of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East following the U.S. midterm elections. International oil prices rose more than 2% on Oct. 30, with Brent crude closing near $118 a barrel, its highest level since April.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other expert organizations have warned that the oil market could shift into oversupply in 2027 if supply flows from the Gulf region return to normal.

"OPEC+ faces an extremely difficult call for 2027," Leon said. "The group has to plan around huge uncertainty over the war, the pace of supply recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the risk of oversupply once disrupted barrels return."

The key oil-producing countries completed the reversal of their voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day by September this year and have since paused further increases. However, a separate production cut of 2 million barrels per day covering the broader membership remains in place through the end of 2026 to prevent a collapse in oil prices.

OPEC+ plans to complete an assessment of each member country's production capacity during the fourth quarter to establish production baselines for 2027. The assessment was originally scheduled for completion in October, but delays in facility expansion projects in the Middle East have pushed back the timetable slightly, with completion now expected by mid-November.

                                                                                                           Lee Jeong-eun