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U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un shake hands ahead of their summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018. / AP, Yonhap

[Article Summary]

1. U.S. President Donald Trump left open the possibility on the 12th of meeting North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un during his visit to Asia next month.

2. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that President Trump pressured his aides to pursue a summit with Chairman Kim.

3. President Trump directed a scale-back of joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises, while North Korea launched its fourth ballistic missile in a single month.

4. U.S. experts pointed out that North Korea's expanded nuclear arsenal could limit diplomatic breakthroughs, with the issue of recognizing it as a nuclear weapons state emerging as a key point of contention.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated on the 12th (local time) that he could meet North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un during his trip to Asia next month. Against the backdrop of President Trump directing a reduction in joint South Korea-U.S. military drills, North Korea launched its fourth ballistic missile within a month.

President Trump is scheduled to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China, from November 18 to 19, though he did not disclose any schedule for a meeting with Chairman Kim.

Trump leaves door open to meeting Kim, saying he gets along with him

Asked at the White House on that day whether he plans to meet Chairman Kim during his trip to Asia, President Trump replied, "I may."

He added, "Wouldn't that be exciting?" while noting, "I get along with him."

President Trump will visit Asia to participate in the APEC summit. However, he did not specify a date or location for a potential meeting with Chairman Kim.

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U.S. President Donald Trump (left) walks back with North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un on the afternoon of June 30, 2019, after crossing the Military Demarcation Line into the northern side at Panmunjom. / Yonhap

WSJ reports Trump pushed aides for summit with Kim 

President Trump has been pressing aides to arrange a meeting with Chairman Kim as early as this fall, The Wall Street Journal reported on August 18, citing U.S. officials.

President Trump held private discussions regarding an in-person meeting with Chairman Kim on the margins of the APEC summit in China this November. However, no formal summit preparations were underway at that time.

A White House official stated that the two leaders would meet when the timing is appropriate. On August 16, President Trump posted on Truth Social directing a reduction in joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, citing his "very good relationship" with Chairman Kim as one of the factors. The following day, he explained that Seoul's failure to cooperate with U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz served as the backdrop for the drawdown decision.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), assessed that scaling back the military drills represents a tangible move demonstrating a willingness to hold talks with Chairman Kim.

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North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on the 13th that "on the occasion of the 81st founding anniversary of the Workers' Party of Korea, the National Defense Revolution Museum of the Second Economic Committee of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was opened." The news agency reported that the opening ceremony was held on the 11th. / Pyongyang, KCNA, Yonhap

North Korea fires fourth ballistic missile in a month with warhead stockpile estimated up to several hundred

North Korea test-fired tactical ballistic missiles on the 12th. The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on the 13th that the test verified technical upgrades to key missile components. South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles toward the East Sea. Reuters reported that this launch marks Pyongyang's fourth in the span of a single month.

Chairman Kim visited a defense industry exhibition hall on the 11th and declared intentions to further accelerate the development of weapon systems and military hardware. Independent arms control experts have estimated that North Korea has developed roughly 60 nuclear warheads and secured fissile material sufficient to assemble up to 90. Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at Stanford University, estimated that North Korea's actual arsenal could reach into the low hundreds, citing hundreds of unveiled missile launchers and fissile material production volumes, according to The Wall Street Journal. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed in March that North Korea remains fully committed to expanding its strategic weapons programs, including warheads and delivery systems.

U.S. experts say Kim aims for nuclear state status 

The United States does not officially recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. Victor Cha analyzed that Chairman Kim seeks to force Washington to drop its denuclearization demands and gain de facto recognition as a nuclear power.

Bruce Klingner, a Senior Research Fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former senior CIA analyst for the Korean Peninsula, criticized President Trump's posture as appeasement of an autocrat, driven by a flawed assumption that personal rapport can deliver strategic foreign policy outcomes.

The Wall Street Journal noted that North Korea has mended ties with China, deployed thousands of troops to Russia, and deepened missile cooperation with Iran. U.S. and foreign officials anticipate that Chairman Kim will hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin before year-end, following the U.S. midterm elections in November.

President Trump and Chairman Kim held their first summit in Singapore on June 12, 2018. Their second meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 27–28, 2019, collapsed over disagreements regarding the scope of dismantling North Korea's nuclear facilities. A subsequent encounter at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on June 30 of that year also failed to break the diplomatic impasse.

                                                                                                                Ha Man-ju