0
The report titled "Analysis of Security Threats from North Korea and China in the First Half of 2026," recently published by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. / Captured from the report

Prospects have been raised that North Korea is highly likely to choose strategic provocations to showcase its nuclear capabilities. Analysts emphasize the need for close monitoring as Pyongyang is actively building up both its nuclear and conventional forces and moving to operate them in tandem.

According to the report titled "Analysis of Security Threats from North Korea and China in the First Half of 2026," published by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on the 31st, threats originating from North Korea are escalating as the regime attempts to institutionalize actual war-fighting capabilities combining nuclear arms with modernized conventional forces.

"North Korea will seek to simultaneously enhance military coercion backed by nuclear weapons and the practical operational capabilities of its conventional and asymmetric forces," projected Shin Bum-cheol, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute. "The likelihood of staging strategic provocations to test previously developed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) engines is growing."

The report also raised the possibility that North Korea could transition concepts acquired from the battlefields in Russia—such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, surveillance and reconnaissance, low-cost precision strikes, and battlefield network operations—into its own combat doctrine, while choosing military options to pressure the U.S. through provocations targeting South Korea, Japan, and Guam.

Senior Research Fellow Shin noted, "Advancements in drone technology and their potential tactical applications could give North Korea military confidence, creating an illusion that it can seize military initiative on the Korean Peninsula." He predicted a high likelihood of rising tensions near the Military Demarcation Line, including the Northern Limit Line (NLL), as well as "gray-zone provocations" via cyberspace.

Regarding North Korea-U.S. dialogue, the analysis noted that Pyongyang is taking an approach focused solely on securing practical benefits, such as sanctions relief, predicated on its status as a nuclear possessor. North Korea's restraint from directly criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump is also seen as a strategic calculation made with potential future bilateral summits in mind.

"North Korea is buying time to actively induce policy changes from the U.S. without provoking it," Senior Research Fellow Shin analyzed, adding that Pyongyang is pushing for closer military ties with Russia and strengthening diplomatic engagement with China to this end.

                                                                                                            Mok Yong-jae