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Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon leaves the courthouse after a sentencing hearing at the Seoul Central District Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of July 22, after being indicted on charges of receiving opinion poll results from political broker Myung Tae-kyun and having a supporter pay the cost / Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who was the hero of the biggest upset in the June 3 local elections, was found guilty in his first-instance trial for violating the Political Funds Act, sending shockwaves through the People Power Party's future power dynamics. Mayor Oh, who had emerged as a leading presidential contender for the conservative camp by defending Seoul even amidst a strong Democratic Party wave, now faces a high likelihood that his political momentum will contract.

The Criminal Agreement Division 22 of the Seoul Central District Court sentenced Mayor Oh, who was indicted on charges of violating the Political Funds Act, to a fine of 10 million KRW on July 22. This ruling does not mean an immediate "political exit." However, under Article 57 of the Political Funds Act, if this sentence is finalized by the Supreme Court, he will lose his mayoralty and have his right to run for office restricted, making a bid for the next presidency impossible.

Mayor Oh pulled off a dramatic last-minute comeback in the June 3 local elections to become the first historic five-term Mayor of Seoul. Even as the People Power Party struggled nationwide, he defended Seoul, simultaneously proving both his "metropolitan competitiveness" and "moderate appeal," earning him a solid reputation inside and outside the party as a key presidential contender.

However, this first-instance ruling has put a heavy brake on Mayor Oh's momentum. As Political Funds Act violation charges directly tie to holding public office and the right to stand for election, he will have no choice but to pour a significant portion of his political energy into responding to the appellate court and Supreme Court trials.

Although time remains until the final Supreme Court ruling expected early next year, the mere fact that a leading presidential candidate is carrying judicial risk is expected to have a considerable impact on the People Power Party's future nomination race. Observations suggest that competition among opposition figures—such as Party Leader Jang Dong-hyeok, Representative Han Dong-hoon, and Reform Party Leader Lee Jun-seok—may accelerate to claim the metropolitan and moderate-conservative space previously occupied by Mayor Oh.

A senior People Power Party lawmaker said, "Mayor Oh is one of the few presidential contenders with competitiveness in the Seoul metropolitan area," adding, "While it is hard to predict the final outcome, the sentence far exceeds the threshold for losing the mayoralty, placing a significant political burden on him."

The People Power Party pushed back, labeling the verdict a "political ruling." Chief Spokesperson Park Sung-hoon criticized in a commentary, "This ruling is a grave event that forces us to question whether the judiciary is an institution moving according to the tastes of political power," adding, "It only reinforces the perception of 'innocent if ruling party, guilty if opposition'—being lenient on the ruling camp and strict on the opposition."

Kang Jun-hyun, Chief Spokesperson for the Democratic Party, stated, "It is a result of justice prevailing for a clear crime," adding, "We hope Mayor Oh humbly accepts his guilt and fulfills his legal and political responsibilities."

                                                                                                         Kim Chae-yeon