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Cargo containers are stacked at Pyeongtaek Port in Gyeonggi Province. / Courtesy of Yonhap News

Driven by strong semiconductor-led exports, South Korea's current account surplus hit an all-time high in May. Reflecting this robust performance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sharply upgraded its economic growth forecast for the country this year, signaling heightened expectations for the economy.

According to preliminary balance of payments data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on July 8, the country’s current account recorded a surplus of 38.61 billion dollars (approximately 58.07 trillion won) in May. This surpasses the previous monthly record of 37.93 billion dollars set in March of this year, marking the largest monthly surplus ever recorded.

The surge was fueled primarily by the goods balance. The goods account posted a 37.86 billion dollar surplus, largely driven by a 62.9% year-on-year spike in exports, which reached 94.34 billion dollars. Shipments of information technology (IT) products, particularly semiconductors, led the charge. Total IT exports jumped 128.9% compared to the same month last year, with semiconductor exports skyrocketing by 167.7% and computer peripherals surging by 249.4%.

With this performance, the cumulative current account surplus for the first five months of the year reached 141.28 billion dollars. This puts the figure within arm's reach of the BOK’s first-half forecast of 151.5 billion dollars outlined in its May economic outlook. The central bank expects that if the current export momentum persists, the current account surplus will comfortably outperform both its first-half and full-year forecasts of 250 billion dollars.

The upbeat economic trajectory was further validated by the IMF. In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update released on the same day, the IMF raised its growth forecast for South Korea's real gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 2.6%, up 0.7 percentage points from its April projection of 1.9%. It also upgraded the country's growth outlook for next year by 0.4 percentage points to 2.5%.

The IMF named South Korea alongside Taiwan, Thailand, and Malaysia as the top four net exporters of artificial intelligence (AI) hardware. It evaluated that the booming exports of chips and AI hardware are driving strong economic growth, overcoming the country's high reliance on energy imports from the Middle East.

"In the latest IMF outlook, South Korea's growth forecast saw the largest upward revision among the 30 major economies evaluated," a government official noted. "The simultaneous upgrade for both this year and next year suggests that South Korea's growth momentum tied to semiconductors and AI is highly likely to extend well into next year."

                                                                                                              Lee Ji-hoon 

                                                                                                         Han Sang-wook