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A plaque is affixed to the exterior wall of the headquarters of the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) in Montrouge, Hauts-de-Seine, France. / AFP-Yonhap

France has projected that its population in 2070 will decline by around 3.2 million compared to 2026, reaching approximately 65.9 million, according to forecasts released on the 8th (local time).

The French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) said in its 40-year population outlook released that day that this outcome would occur if recent demographic trends continue.

According to the institute, France’s population is expected to continue increasing until 2037, reaching 69.8 million, driven by sustained immigration inflows, before entering a downward trend thereafter.

In 2023, the annual number of births fell below 700,000 for the first time since World War II, and the decline has continued. Last year, the total number of deaths exceeded the number of births. Population decline has therefore been partially offset by immigration inflows.

Population aging is also expected to accelerate. The institute projects that by 2070, the population aged 65 and older will reach around 5.8 million, those aged 80 and older about 4.6 million, and the number of centenarians will quadruple compared to 2026 levels.

As population decline and aging intensify, the government faces increasing pressure on pension finances, rising healthcare expenditures, shortages of nursing care facilities, and school closures in rural areas.

France’s Court of Audit warned late last year that “population aging will have serious consequences for the national economy and public finances in terms of spending and tax revenue.” In this context, a key variable for future demographic change is whether the birth rate will rebound.

French President Emmanuel Macron declared a policy of “demographic rearmament” in 2024 to respond to the continued decline in birth rates.

Measures include expanding fertility testing eligibility to age 20 and introducing new parental leave policies. The government is also pushing to create 100,000 additional childcare positions by 2027, but has so far shown limited results.

                                                                                                              Lim Yu-jeong