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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (right) and Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing (left) shake hands before their meeting at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on the 1st (local time). Min Aung Hlaing is on a five-day state visit to India. / Photo via EPA, Yonhap News

Myanmar's junta chief, Min Aung Hlaing, has chosen India as his first overseas destination since assuming the presidency. Analysts suggest that India's move is also aimed at countering China's growing influence in Myanmar.

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on June 2 (local time), Min Aung Hlaing is seeking to strengthen ties with India, a key regional partner for Myanmar, during a five-day visit that began on May 30 at the direct invitation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even amid ongoing Western sanctions following the February 2021 coup, India has maintained a working relationship with the junta due to Myanmar's strategic importance to its own national security.

Hunter Marston, a Southeast Asia expert at Australia's Lowy Institute, assessed the invitation as "a de facto recognition of this junta hardliner's political standing." The two leaders previously met on the sidelines of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) summit in Bangkok last April. "The difference now is that India is unfazed about dealing with him as the leader of Myanmar's new government, regardless of how it is perceived," Marston said.

Min Aung Hlaing, a former military commander-in-chief and junta leader, seized power in a 2021 coup and has since cracked down on opposition forces. Following the coup, Myanmar spiraled into nationwide armed conflict and a humanitarian crisis. He assumed the presidency this past April through an election criticized as being "rigged to maintain the military's grip on power." His last visit to India was in 2019, during his tenure as military commander-in-chief.

A key project India hopes to advance during this visit is the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMT). The 109-kilometer section connecting Paletwa in Myanmar's Chin State to Zorinpuia on the border of India's Mizoram State has been delayed for years due to clashes between the military, the Arakan Army, and allied resistance forces. Marston pointed out that to move the project forward, military presence in Chin State must be reinforced to stabilize the transport route. He noted that India views Myanmar as a crucial partner in preventing China's maritime dominance in the Bay of Bengal and projecting its own naval power, making naval cooperation a major agenda item for India.

Professor Htwe Htwe Thein of Curtin University in Australia, who is originally from Myanmar, also characterized the visit as "pragmatic engagement rather than moral support." She explained that Myanmar is strategically too important to ignore, and its deteriorating instability has become a regional crisis that "neighboring countries simply cannot just sit back and watch." She added, "Choosing India as the president's first overseas trip carries symbolic meaning. Hlaing wants to demonstrate that he is not solely supported by China." She further noted that India could not afford to cede the relationship entirely to China due to "deep concerns" that China would fill the vacuum left by India.

However, Professor Htwe Htwe drew a clear line regarding the moral cost. "India's welcoming of Min Aung Hlaing is not sophisticated diplomacy; it is a betrayal," she criticized. "That India, the world's largest democracy, is willing to welcome a figure widely viewed as an international criminal is not only a political choice but also a matter of reputation."

Regional human rights watchdogs and anti-junta resistance forces have argued that Prime Minister Modi's invitation lends legitimacy to a regime that carries out ground military operations, daily airstrikes, and cluster bomb drops against its own citizens. The ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights urged India to withdraw its recognition of the junta, defining Min Aung Hlaing as "the architect of a brutal coup and the figure who spearheaded mass atrocities against his own people."

                                                                                                             Jung Lee-na