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Traders work at Hana Bank’s dealing room in Euljiro, Seoul, on October 21. / Source: Yonhap News

Export prices and Big Tech earnings are delivering a “double boost” to Korea’s equity market, with semiconductor profits widening and the AI supercycle expected to persist into the year after next—leaving ample room for further gains in the Kospi.

As the Kospi keeps notching fresh record highs, domestic brokerages are raising their index targets, citing the outperformance of chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as the main driver. On October 21, Samsung Electronics’ share price touched an intraday record of 99,900 won, while SK Hynix hit 500,000 won for the first time.

Analysts expect chip strength to continue leading the index higher. With the AI semiconductor boom projected to run through at least the next two years, many see sufficient upside left for the Kospi.

On the day, Samsung Securities lifted its Kospi forecast band from 3,250–3,700 points to 3,600–4,050, the most bullish call this year among Korean brokerages.

“The semiconductor sector is propelling upward revisions to domestic earnings momentum,” wrote analysts Yang Il-woo and Park Juran at Samsung Securities, citing a steep rise in chip export prices and better-than-expected results from U.S. Big Tech. The shift of profit momentum, once concentrated in Nvidia, is now spreading—benefiting Korean chipmakers, they said.

KB Securities was the first of the major houses to lift its target earlier this year, setting 3,700 in June—then driven less by chip strength and more by the Lee administration’s market-reform agenda. “Capital-market reforms are a core bull driver,” said KB analyst Lee Eun-taek at the time, pointing to comprehensive measures such as amendments to the Commercial Act that boosted investor expectations. In July, Hana Securities also floated the possibility of 4,000, anchored in the new government’s policy tilt.

More recently, however, the sell side has increasingly focused on the AI wave and the resulting chip upcycle. Late last month, Yuanta Securities’ Kim Yong-gu raised his Kospi band to 3,350–3,750 from 3,100–3,500, naming semiconductors as a top pick for the fourth quarter on expectations of an AI-led rebound in exports and earnings. Last week, Korea Investment & Securities’ Kim Dae-joon also cited strengthening profit momentum in chips as he lifted his band top from 3,500 to 3,750.

Some caution that a durable bull market will require broader profit improvement beyond semiconductors. “For a more solid advance, the rally needs to spread to other industries,” said one industry official, adding that the ongoing third-quarter earnings season—running into next month—will be the real test of the Kospi’s upward trend.