Yoon Seok-youl’s political debut could shake up power structure

Mar 08, 2021, 08:00 am

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Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl announces his resignation in front of the Supreme Prosecutors’ Office in Seoul on March 4, 2021./ Photographed by Jung Jae-hoon

AsiaToday reporters Jeong Geum-min & Jo Jae-hak & Lee Yoo-jin

South Korea’s presidential election will be held on March 9, 2022. The biggest variables of the ruling bloc, which aims to regain power, are the anti-Moon power and the emergence of a third presidential candidate. What’s fatal for the opposition bloc is that it has not yet found a strong candidate to win support from anti-Moon voters. The resignation of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl has rattled the opposition bloc as Yoon’s possible political debut could shake up the power structure of potential presidential candidates. With a year ahead of the upcoming presidential election, we will examine various scenarios to watch possible competition for the presidency with opinion poll experts.

The ruling Democratic Party (DP) has formed the first-runner structure of Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung ahead of the presidential race. DP Chairman Rep. Lee Nak-yon, who used be the top potential presidential candidate, saw a sharp decline in his support rate after his remarks about giving special pardons to jailed former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye met a huge backlash from party members and the public. Rep. Lee is seeking to chase back Governor Lee by taking the outcome of the April 7 Seoul-Busan mayoral by-elections as a momentum for rebound.

However, many observers say a “third presidential candidate” may emerge due to Rep. Lee’s uncertainty and Gov. Lee’s distrust within the party. If Yoon attempts to mobilize anti-Moon sentiment, the ruling bloc is likely to consider pro-Moon candidate against the move. In this case, prime minister Chung Sye-kyun, Rep. Lee Nak-yon, and former justice minister Choo Mi-ae are expected to benefit from it.

“Lee Jae-myung is undoubtedly taking the lead now, but he will encounter several crisis,” R&Search director Kim Mi-hyun told AsiaToday in a phone interview on Sunday. “If Gov. Lee goes too far, he may not experience sense of crisis and collapse in on himself. Also, we have to see what happens if Yoon stands in the presidential election.”

“The approval rating of Rep. Lee will rise if the by-election result is successful. The key variable is Gov. Lee’s approval rating,” Kim said.

The opposition bloc has no strong candidate with two-digit approval rating. If Yoon decides to enter politics, his political debut could become the turning point for the opposition bloc for the presidential election. Some experts say Yoon could become a single candidate for anti-Moon voters or play a key role in the political restructuring in the opposition bloc.

“The political debut of Yoon itself is a variable, but there can be additional variables,” said Hong Hyung-sik, director of pollster Hangil Research & Consulting. “If the opposition bloc is restructured with the emergence of Yoon, the election will be a competition between the two blocs. But if Yoon and the main opposition People Power Party fail to team up, dividing the conservatives, Yoon may lose his competitive power, too,” Hong said.

However, even if Yoon decides to enter politics, it remains unknown when he would begin his political career. Many observers say he will watch how the situation goes and wait until his value peaks. The opposition People Power Party (PPP) is smiling on Yoon since it can rely on anti-Moon sentiment, but has not yet made it clear if Yoon is an appropriate candidate to support for presidency.

“Those who have evaluated President Moon Jae-in negatively will show support for Yoon, expanding their power among conservatives,” said Bae Jong-chan, director of Insight K. “On the other hand, it is an opportunity for the PPP to unite its supporters, but it can weaken competitiveness of its existing presidential candidates at the same time, amplifying uncertainty.”

#Yoon Seok-youl #Democratic Party #presidential election #People Power Party