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Incumbent Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an of the Kuomintang (KMT, right) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Puma Shen are set to face off in a crucial contest in Taiwan's local elections on Nov. 28. Shen is currently seen as having the upper hand. /Strait Herald

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which favors closer ties with the United States and Taiwan independence, is increasingly seen as likely to secure a relatively easy victory in Taiwan's local elections scheduled for Nov. 28. If the outcome goes as expected, President Lai Ching-te, long regarded as a thorn in China's side, is also expected to enjoy a smoother path toward reelection.

Alongside the presidential and legislative elections, the local elections are considered one of Taiwan's three major political events. They are known as the "nine-in-one" elections because voters simultaneously elect officials to nine categories of local public office, including those in special municipalities such as Taipei and county-level cities. The elections are considered as important in Taiwan as the U.S. midterm elections that concluded Tuesday. This is particularly true given that the political fortunes of the ruling DPP and President Lai, who have faced some difficulties governing without a legislative majority, could change dramatically as a result.

According to Beijing-based sources familiar with cross-strait relations and Taiwanese media reports on Wednesday, both the DPP and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) have little choice but to stake their political futures on winning the elections. This is especially true for the KMT, which has become a perennial opposition party after losing three consecutive presidential elections. The stakes are particularly high considering that the KMT currently holds an overwhelming advantage, controlling 15 of Taiwan's 22 cities and counties.

However, the political climate appears to be turning increasingly unfavorable for the KMT, despite its strong determination to regain power. The DPP, which firmly rejects the "one China" principle and has shown a willingness to confront China even at the risk of conflict, appears to have gained the upper hand. This suggests that the party's slogan of "Taiwan independence," a central element of its political identity, is resonating strongly with voters.

Opinion polls also suggest that the KMT's long-held aspirations may not be easily realized. Most surveys indicate that the DPP is likely to win at least a majority of the 22 electoral districts. Few forecasts suggest that the KMT will repeat its overwhelming success of four years ago. The situation is perhaps best illustrated by party approval ratings, with the DPP enjoying support in the mid-40% range, far ahead of the KMT, which remains below 30%.

President Lai's approval rating is another discouraging sign for the KMT. Most opinion polls put his approval rating in the mid-50% range, its highest level since April last year. Moreover, his approval rating appears to be rising as Election Day approaches. Given these trends, it may not be unreasonable to conclude that the KMT's chances of a dramatic comeback are becoming increasingly slim.

The situation also looks difficult for the KMT in Taipei's mayoral race, the election's biggest battleground. According to a recent survey by the Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association, DPP candidate Puma Shen (44) had a support rating of 50.3%, leading incumbent KMT Mayor Chiang Wan-an (47), the great-grandson of former President Chiang Kai-shek, by a substantial 17 percentage points. It is therefore understandable why Taiwanese media have described the Taipei mayoral race as being swept by a so-called "Shen wave."

Shen appears well aware of the favorable political climate. While remaining outwardly modest with his remark that "polls are on paper, but elections are decided by votes," he nevertheless appears confident of victory. Cui Zhongxi, a Beijing-based Taiwanese entertainment businessman, offered a similar assessment, saying, "The political climate has shifted so much that it is almost unfortunate for incumbent Mayor Chiang, who is seeking reelection, that he belongs to the KMT." Cui suggested that the outcome was virtually decided. It may therefore be fair to say that Election Day is fast approaching, with the DPP and President Lai appearing increasingly likely to have cause for celebration.

                                                                                                            Hong Soon-do