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A pregnant woman in Hanoi, Vietnam, walks past a family billboard carrying a message to encourage childbirth on June 29 (local time). To counter its aging population, the Vietnamese government has scrapped its decades-old two-child limit and is now pushing forward with pro-natality policies. /AFP, Yonhap News

Vietnam has enacted a new population law focusing on expanding maternity leave and introducing childbirth subsidies, coming just one year after the country scrapped its family planning limits.

According to AFP on July 2 (local time), the population law and its enforcement regulations, which took effect the previous day in Vietnam, extended the prenatal and postnatal leave for mothers giving birth to their second child from six months to seven months. The government will also subsidize prenatal and newborn screening costs. A lump-sum payment of 2 million dong (approximately 120,000 won) will be provided per birth, and this can be received concurrently up to a maximum of 600 million dong (approximately 350,000 won) if an individual meets multiple qualifications, such as being a member of an ethnic minority or residing in a low-fertility region.

Pham Thi Lan, head of the population and development unit at the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) Vietnam office, evaluated the move as "a meaningful shift from controlling family planning to focusing on population development."

The reason why a country that used to discipline Communist Party members for having a third child made a complete U-turn lies in its rapidly worsening demographic structure. Currently, Vietnam's total fertility rate stands at 1.93, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, while its life expectancy is close to 75 years. The proportion of the population aged 60 and older has already surpassed 10%, and according to government estimates, it will reach 25% by the middle of this century, at which point the overall population will begin to shrink. Although Vietnam has not yet entered a phase of population decline like South Korea or Japan, its pace of aging is among the fastest in Asia.

What experts worry about more is that this change is occurring at an earlier stage of economic development compared to other aging nations. Vietnam's GDP per capita is around 5,000 dollars (approximately 7.75 million won), which is only about half the level of Japan when it recorded a similar fertility rate in the early 1980s. The World Bank also warned in a 2021 report that "Vietnam has a shorter window to adapt to an aging society than advanced economies enjoyed," and that if the window for reform closes, "growth will slow down significantly."

However, those directly affected remain skeptical about the new policy. Nguyen Kim Bich, an accountant living in Hanoi, earns a combined monthly income of about 1,000 dollars (approximately 1.55 million won) with her husband, who works in advertising, but nearly half of that goes toward raising their first child. Living with her in-laws in a small house, she told AFP, "I can't choose to have a second child just because leave is extended by a month and I receive 75 dollars (approximately 120,000 won)."

Pham Thi Lan also acknowledged the limitations of one-off benefits like lump-sum payments. She pointed out that "changing parents' minds requires continuous support throughout the entire parenting process," and adding that "with housing and childcare costs being so high, the willingness to give birth is bound to dampen without comprehensive support." In fact, a recent government survey also showed that 73% of married respondents answered that wages influence their decision to have children.

Tran Minh Anh, a 24-year-old resident of the capital city of Hanoi, was even more resolute. Earning a monthly salary of 380 dollars (approximately 590,000 won), she said, "The financial and mental burden is just too heavy. I will not have children at all." While Vietnam has shifted its policy stance from birth control to encouraging childbirth, it remains uncertain whether it can overcome the real-world barrier of childcare costs.

                                                                                                             Jeong Ri-na