Although the United States and Iran have agreed to halt recent military strikes and return to the negotiating table, analysts warn that the fundamental conflict over the control of the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, leaving the potential for renewed clashes.
US internet media Axios reported on the 28th (local time) that the United States and Iran, which had exchanged retaliatory airstrikes for several days following an Iranian strike on a merchant ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz, decided to suspend mutual military actions. Citing a senior US official, the report stated, "We decided to halt all physical military operations."
The two sides are scheduled to hold follow-up talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar—a major mediating nation—on the 30th to focus heavily on the Strait of Hormuz issue. Initially, this meeting was slated to take place in Switzerland with the Iranian nuclear program as the agenda. However, as conflict over the control of the waterway rapidly escalated following Iran's attack on a civilian vessel on the 25th, the venue was moved to the Middle East and the agenda shifted to resolving the strait dispute. Axios noted that both sides have redirected the focus of negotiations to the Strait of Hormuz issue.
Nevertheless, the Iranian government has yet to release an official stance regarding the suspension of mutual attacks and the resumption of talks announced by the US side. Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted, "The management of the Strait of Hormuz and the complete restoration of maritime traffic is the sole responsibility of Iran," adding, "No other nation or international organization can hold authority over this matter."
Some analysts project that while the upcoming meeting on the 30th may cool down immediate armed clashes, military tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could escalate again at any time unless the core issues are resolved. This is because Iran continues to define its management authority over the Strait of Hormuz as a matter of national sovereignty, and a direct hotline between the US military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to prevent accidental clashes has still not been established.
Nam Mi-kyung