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Bitcoin's image/Reuters, Yonhap

As Bitcoin continues its sideways trend in the $50,000 range, analysis emerges indicating that it has lost upward momentum as expectations for a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve are weakening and the buying trend of institutional investors is also slowing down. Within the market, the "apocalyptic theory" questioning the long-term survival possibility of Bitcoin and the "rebound theory" based on the inflow of institutional funds are confronting each other.

According to the U.S. virtual asset exchange Coinbase on the 29th, as of 3 p.m. on this day, Bitcoin is trading at $60,014, up 0.04% from the previous day. Having repeated fluctuations in the late $50,000s recently, it appears to have barely re-entered the $60,000 mark.

The uncertainty of monetary policy is pointed out as the biggest background for this downward trend. This is because projections carry on that the Fed's timing for a rate cut could be delayed as U.S. inflation is not slowing down as easily than expected. Normally, when a high interest rate environment is prolonged, liquidity decreases, which also acts as a burden on the virtual asset market—a risky asset.

The fund flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has also deteriorated. The U.S. spot ETFs, which led the Bitcoin rally last year and early this year, have seen their net inflow scale slow down recently, and net outflows even appeared on some trading days. It receives evaluations that the momentum for price increases has become insufficient as the new buying trend of institutions weakened.

Not only that, the massive movement of investors' funds to the U.S. stock market—including AI semiconductors and mega-cap tech stocks—also exerted an influence.

Under these circumstances, experts' outlooks surrounding the future of Bitcoin split starkly. Jeremy Grantham, a prominent pessimist and co-founder of investment firm GMO, asserted in a recent broadcast, "Bitcoin will gradually lose its presence and disappear over the coming decades." He subsequently raised a Bitcoin "apocalyptic theory," stating, "Bitcoin is not a stable store of value, and rather than collapsing explosively, it will fade away gradually with a small whimper."

Conversely, there are also experts who predicted a long-term upward possibility. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, foresaw in a recent report, "In the short term, volatility may carry on due to macroeconomic variables, but once institutional demand recovers, Bitcoin is highly likely to enter an upward trend again."

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, also analyzed, "The recent correction is a normal volatility appearing in the market cycle," adding, "The adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors is continuing to expand, and the long-term investment logic remains valid."

Within the industry, views form that Bitcoin will be influenced for the time being by the U.S. Fed's monetary policy, spot ETF fund flows, and whether institutional investors' buying trend recovers. A possibility exists that a box pattern in the $50,000s will carry on in the short term, and high volatility is also projected to persist.

                                                                                                               Kim Min-ju