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The Iranian national flag layered with a graphic depicting a "nuclear program." / Yonhap News via Reuters

Despite the signing of an end-of-war Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran, deep-seated divisions over core issues of Tehran's nuclear program persist, casting profound doubt on whether the landmark agreement will translate into lasting peace.

U.S. news website Axios reported on June 22 (local time) that while Washington and Tehran have concluded their initial round of follow-up negotiations in the wake of the MOU, both nations are already testing the boundaries and limitations of the current pact.

Although some progress is being made on the diplomatic front, the U.S. intelligence community remains deeply skeptical about the ultimate prospects of reaching a comprehensive, final nuclear agreement.

According to some officials, intelligence assessments suggest that Tehran has demonstrated no real willingness to offer the level of nuclear concessions necessary to secure a definitive, long-term deal.

This ongoing impasse has led some observers to project that the follow-up negotiations could drag on well beyond the stipulated 60-day ceasefire window, potentially extending into January 2029, when the next U.S. president is scheduled to take office.

Axios underscored that for the fragile agreement to hold, several critical conditions must be met: Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah must maintain their ceasefire, and Iran must ensure unhindered international maritime trade through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Furthermore, the report noted that U.S. President Donald Trump must contribute to de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, which would require refraining from the volatile rhetoric and threats of military strikes or targeted assassinations against Iranian leadership that characterized his previous approaches.

Meanwhile, Qatari and Pakistani mediators struck a more optimistic tone at the conclusion of the initial follow-up talks on June 22. In a joint statement, the mediating teams hailed the discussions as having yielded "encouraging progress," announcing that the parties had agreed to establish a formal roadmap aimed at hammering out a final nuclear accord within the 60-day timeframe.

Working-level diplomatic delegations from the involved nations are scheduled to remain in Switzerland for the remainder of the week to continue granular negotiations over the technicalities and sticking points of the talks.

                                                                                                            Kim Hyun-min