Multiple signs are appearing everywhere that can be interpreted as potentially leading to lifelong rule depending on the case, and it is certain that the long-term reign of General Secretary and President Xi Jinping, who is certain to seek a fourth term at the party's 21st National Congress (a national congress held every five years) to be held next autumn, will become an irreversible reality in Chinese politics.

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President and General Secretary Xi Jinping of China, who visited and inspected a certain unit of the People's Liberation Army last year. Even at that time, the possibility of his long-term reign could be considered almost a foregone conclusion. On the far right, the face of former Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, who was purged last year, is visible. / China's state-run China Central Television (CCTV)

The fact that the Party Central Party Building Work Leading Group formalized Xi's party building thought and instructed organizations at all levels to study it can be cited as a prime example. According to a report on the 19th by the state-run Xinhua News Agency, it was announced the previous day with the publication of the 'Notice on Studying and Implementing Xi Jinping's Party Building Thought' that this should be taken as an important political task for a certain period in the future. It can only be seen that the Party has stepped up at its level to further strengthen the power base for his long-term reign.

The moves of President Xi, who completely devastated the military from about three years ago until recently—which could be the biggest obstacle to his long-term reign—must also be mentioned. If there are no members of the Central Military Commission, which usually consists of around seven people, other than himself as chairman and Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin (68), any further explanation is redundant. It must be said that there is a reason why even Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (75), who had a close relationship with him, was purged and fell from power last year.

Attention should also be paid to appointments that give the impression that the unwritten rule of Qishangbaxia (67 years old remains active, 68 and older retires), which regulates the retirement age of the top party and government leadership, has been completely abolished recently. This can be called a desperate measure to leave no room for those around him to dispute his long-term reign. Indeed, one can look at the fact that Cai Qi (71), a member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee and Director of the General Office of the Central Committee who is known as his closest aide, was recently appointed as the new president of the Central Party School, gaining room to remain active for a considerable period.

In this regard, Vice President Han Zheng (72), whose main job is to receive foreign leaders on behalf of President Xi, is also similar. When he was appointed to his current position at the first session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) held in early March 2023, he was already 69 years old, yet he was able to remain a member of the national-level leadership regardless of the Qishangbaxia principle.

Looking only at the cases of Standing Committee Member and Director Cai and Vice President Han, it must be said that the regulation requiring unconditional retirement from the top party and government leadership at the age of 68 or older has virtually become neutralized. It is no exaggeration to say that even if President Xi embarks on a long-term reign, the room to dispute it has completely vanished.

The atmosphere within the party and government that does not seem to tolerate a successor goes without saying. One only needs to look at the reality of Hu Chunhua (63), Vice Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) who was once famous as the crown prince of former General Secretary and President Hu Jintao, now living quietly with his past glory behind him. The consecutive downfalls of prominent next-generation politicians who used to draw media attention can also be understood in the same context.

Looking at various circumstances, President Xi's long-term reign is now moving far beyond a possibility and becoming a complete reality. Mentioning the word irreversible can indeed be said to have hit the nail on the head.

                                                                                                            Hong Soon-do