"The expansion of jeonse loans was a primary driver behind rising housing prices."
With this single remark from President Lee, all eyes within and outside the financial sector have rapidly shifted toward jeonse loans. This comes as speculation mounts over potential additional regulations, including the expansion of the Debt Service Ratio (DSR) framework to encompass jeonse loans.
In fact, options such as expanding the DSR to jeonse loans, reducing state-backed jeonse guarantee ratios, and tightening regulations on non-resident single-homeowners are cards that financial authorities have long been considering. However, the reason the market is paying closer attention to this particular remark is different. Observers note that because the president directly singled out jeonse loans as the root cause of rising home prices, the relevant policy discussions will gain significant momentum.
In particular, analysts suggest that policies which were previously difficult to pull out may now regain traction. Accordingly, the industry is bracing for the likelihood of heavy-handed measures.
While concrete regulatory guidelines or directions have yet to be announced, some market insiders project that commercial banks will become even more cautious about extending both jeonse and conventional mortgages. Historically, the banking sector has reacted to policy cues more sensitively than anyone else. This view is further supported by the fact that NH Nonghyup Bank recently hiked interest rates on mortgages and jeonse loans while placing caps on certain lending options following government warnings on household debt, and KB Kookmin Bank likewise adjusted some of its mortgage rates.
The underlying factor behind the government’s scrutiny of jeonse loans is the explosive growth of lease-related debt. According to the Bank of Korea, the total balance of jeonse loans extended by commercial banks skyrocketed from 25.3 trillion won at the end of 2015 to 166.6 trillion won at the end of last year. Financial authorities have also consistently raised concerns that jeonse loans could stimulate surging home prices and fuel household debt expansion. As the president pointed out, many critics also note that excessive guarantee and loan structures have been exploited in the process of jeonse fraud.
However, views remain divided over whether shrinking the jeonse market translates to a "normalization" of the housing sector. For low-income families and younger demographics, jeonse still functions as a vital housing ladder before stepping up to homeownership. Some critics caution that if measures such as reducing state-backed guarantee ratios and expanding the DSR framework materialize, it will accelerate an aggressive shift toward monthly rentals (wolse) and increase the financial burden on actual end-users trying to secure housing funds.
Ultimately, the crucial factor lies in finding a balance between property market stability and the protection of actual end-users. While the policy goals of calming home prices and managing household debt are clear, safeguarding genuine end-users remains an undeniable challenge. As the intensity of jeonse loan regulations rises, banks are highly likely to adopt a more conservative approach to loan management. However, those affected first in that process could be the youth and homeless end-users who genuinely need the capital. It is hoped that a policy minimizing such side effects will be established.
Yoo Su-jeong