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People's Power Party Chair Jang Dong-hyuk, Daegu mayoral candidate Choo Kyung-ho, North Gyeongsang gubernatorial candidate Lee Cheol-woo, and other attendees salute the national flag during the Daegu-North Gyeongsang Joint Vision Declaration Ceremony held at the party's Daegu chapter in Suseong District, Daegu, on May 25. / Photo courtesy of Song Eui-ju

With the June 3 local elections just around the corner, the initial Democratic Party (DP) dominance is giving way to neck-and-neck races in several key battlegrounds. While the DP initially maintained a comfortable lead over the People Power Party (PPP) in major mayoral and gubernatorial contests nationwide—including Daegu, widely regarded as the heart of conservative politics—recent polling shows the approval gap narrowing sharply in critical areas like Seoul and Busan.

According to political insiders on May 25, a Seoul mayoral preference survey conducted by Ace Research from May 19 to 20 commissioned by Newsis revealed that DP candidate Jeong Won-oh secured 41.7 percent against PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon’s 41.6 percent. The gap between the two rivals sits at a mere 0.1 percentage point. While early campaign polls routinely showed Jeong leading Oh by double-digit margins, the incumbent PPP mayor has now closed the distance to a hair's breadth.

Although specific figures fluctuate across different polls, political analysts generally agree that the PPP’s traditional support base is consolidating at a rapid clip, pushing back against the DP's early momentum.

A similar trend is unfolding in Daegu. A Hankook Research survey conducted from May 16 to 20 for KBS Daegu showed DP candidate Kim Boo-kyum at 40 percent and the PPP's Choo Kyung-ho at 39 percent, locking them in a dead heat with a 1 percentage point differential. This marks a dramatic shift from a Gallup Korea poll conducted on April 10 and 11, where Kim led Choo by 17 percentage points (53 percent to 36 percent).

The shifting tide is also shifting the landscape in the Busan Buk-갑 parliamentary by-election. An earlier Ace Research poll from May 17 and 18 for Newsis placed DP candidate Ha Jeong-woo in the lead at 40.4 percent, followed by independent candidate Han Dong-hoon at 32.7 percent and the PPP's Park Min-shik at 20.9 percent. However, a subsequent Gallup Korea poll for the Segye Ilbo conducted on May 21 and 22 showed Han edging ahead at 36 percent to Ha's 35 percent, placing the race within the margin of error.

Political strategists attribute these shifts to a textbook late-stage mobilization of conservative voters as Election Day approaches. "While a significant portion of moderate and center-right voters distanced themselves earlier due to unfavorable views toward the PPP leadership, including Party Chair Jang Dong-hyluk, they are now rallying back home," explained Lee Jae-mook, a professor of political science and international relations at Hankook University of Foreign Studies. "Recent highly polarized issues, including the Starbucks controversy and special counsel bills, have effectively re-ignited tribal political dynamics."

Detailed overviews of the methodologies, sampling errors, response rates, and polling frameworks are available on the official website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

                                                                                                              Chae Jong-il