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A new poll showed that 48 percent of respondents hope for a guilty verdict in the Supreme Court’s final ruling on Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung’s violation of the Public Official Election Act, drawing significant attention.

According to an ARS survey conducted by the Korea Opinion Public Reputation Analysis (KOPRA) at the request of Asia Today, using wireless random digit dialing (RDD) methods on 2,005 adults nationwide from April 25 to 26, 48 percent of respondents said they expect a guilty verdict, compared to 44 percent who expect an acquittal. Eight percent said they were unsure.

Breaking down the results, more than 40 percent of all age groups except those in their 40s expected a guilty verdict. Expectations for a guilty ruling were highest among those aged 18–29 (52%), followed by those in their 30s (47%), 50s (45%), 60s (56%), and 70 and older (57%). In contrast, only 34 percent of those in their 40s expected a guilty verdict.

Expectations for an acquittal were 38 percent among those aged 18–29, 42 percent among those in their 30s, 57 percent among those in their 40s, 51 percent among those in their 50s, 37 percent among those in their 60s, and 36 percent among those aged 70 and older.

By gender, 51 percent of men expected a guilty verdict compared to 41 percent who expected acquittal, while among women, the figures were 46 percent for each.

Regionally, while Gwangju and Jeolla showed a higher expectation for acquittal, most other regions leaned toward a guilty verdict. In Seoul, 55 percent expected a guilty verdict versus 37 percent for acquittal; in Incheon and Gyeonggi, 46 percent expected guilty versus 48 percent acquittal; Daejeon, Sejong, and Chungcheong were split at 45 percent each; Gwangju and Jeolla showed 30 percent guilty expectation versus 62 percent acquittal; Daegu and North Gyeongsang had 61 percent guilty versus 32 percent acquittal; Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang showed 52 percent guilty versus 41 percent acquittal; and Gangwon and Jeju showed 44 percent guilty versus 42 percent acquittal.

Political party support also showed clear differences. Among those expecting a guilty verdict, support broke down as 5 percent Democratic Party, 89 percent People Power Party, 18 percent Rebuilding Korea Party, 60 percent Reform Party, and 68 percent others including progressive parties.

Among those expecting an acquittal, 89 percent were Democratic Party supporters, 6 percent were People Power Party supporters, 65 percent were Innovation Party supporters, 16 percent were Reform Party supporters, and 20 percent belonged to others including progressives.

In terms of political orientation, 79 percent of conservatives expected a guilty verdict, while only 16 percent expected acquittal. Among progressives, 78 percent expected acquittal and 16 percent guilty. Among moderates, 46 percent expected a guilty verdict, compared to 43 percent expecting acquittal.

The survey had a response rate of 8.4 percent and a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. Full details can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.