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/Yonahp

Deficit-financing debt, which must be repaid through public tax revenues, is projected to surpass 1,300 trillion won by 2030. As the national debt swells, annual interest expenses are also expected to exceed 50 trillion won.

According to the Ministry of Planning and Budget on the 6th, deficit-financing debt next year will reach 1,117.1 trillion won, up 91.9 trillion won from 1,025.2 trillion won under this year's supplementary budget. Deficit-financing debt is forecast to grow to 1,192.4 trillion won in 2028 and 1,245.8 trillion won in 2029 before climbing to 1,312.3 trillion won by 2030. Compared to this year, this represents a 287.1-trillion-won expansion in just four years.

The proportion of deficit-financing debt relative to total national debt is also set to expand, rising from 72.6% this year to 73.5% next year, 74.5% in 2028, 75.1% in 2029, and 75.7% by 2030.

Deficit-financing debt encompasses general account liabilities, net debt of local governments, and treasury debt burden actions. Unlike financial debt backed by corresponding assets, it must essentially be redeemed using public taxes. A scenario in which deficit-financing debt expands faster than financial debt is widely interpreted as deterioration in not just the quantity, but also the structural quality of national liabilities.

However, compared to the previous National Fiscal Management Plan, the deficit-financing debt forecast has shown improvement. Under the prior plan, deficit-financing debt was projected to reach 1,248.1 trillion won in 2028 and 1,362.5 trillion won in 2029. The revised outlook is interpreted as reflecting tax revenue gains driven by factors such as the semiconductor supercycle.

The interest burden stemming from mounting national debt is also poised to grow. National debt interest expenses, currently at 36.5 trillion won this year, are projected to rise to 42.8 trillion won next year, 45.4 trillion won in 2028, and 48.9 trillion won in 2029, before reaching 53.3 trillion won by 2030. The ratio of interest expenses to gross domestic product (GDP) is also forecast to increase from 1.3% this year to 1.5% by 2030.

                                                                                                            Lee Ji-hoon