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Chinese President and General Secretary Xi Jinping, who also chairs the Central Military Commission of both the party and the state, is pictured alongside top-ranking generals, including former Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. However, a significant number of these figures have recently suffered the misfortune of being purged one after another. / CCTV.com

Top-ranking generals in the Chinese military have recently fallen from power one after another, resulting in a bizarre situation where only a minuscule fraction has survived. Moreover, with further purges widely anticipated ahead of the 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October, expectations are mounting that the military leadership could be completely decimated. In that event, the armed forces could face an unprecedented crisis not seen since the Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s.

That this assessment is by no means an exaggeration becomes evident when looking at the surviving members who escaped purges within the Central Military Commission (CMC), the People's Liberation Army's supreme command formed through the 20th National Congress in the autumn of 2022. Excluding President and General Secretary Xi Jinping, who serves as the ex officio chairman, Vice Chairman Zhang Shengmin is virtually the sole remaining member.

According to Beijing sources well-versed in Chinese military intelligence on the 3rd, numerous commission members, including former Vice Chairmen He Weidong and Zhang Youxia, have fallen from power for various reasons. Former Defense Minister Li Shangfu is also among them. In particular, former Vice Chairman Zhang, who shared generational ties with President Xi dating back to their fathers, was sidelined in January of this year, and his formal dismissal was finalized late last month. Widespread rumors suggest that allegations of him leaking top-secret information regarding missile technology to the U.S. are likely true, making it impossible for President Xi to grant him clemency.

The misfortune of Ju Qiansheng, former commander of the Strategic Support Force, and Zhong Shaojun, former director of the CMC General Office, also warrants mention. Considering that Zhong served as President Xi's de facto chief of staff within the military, his downfall is particularly extraordinary. It appears President Xi applied the disciplinary blade with a heavy heart, sacrificing even his closest confidant for the sake of strict discipline.

Given that the 5th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is fast approaching, it is virtually certain that more top-echelon figures will face removal. At least 20 individuals are being discussed as potential targets. A significant number of full generals (Shang Jiang) who have shown little to no public activity this year could be the figures in question. A senior colonel on active duty, surnamed Yang, who requested anonymity, remarked that even if full generals face personal matters such as illness, their names are still frequently mentioned in state media, and if they are not, it should be assumed that something has happened to their status. From this perspective, projections that many high-ranking generals will be purged around the 5th Plenary Session can be seen as hitting the mark.

Internally, China has quietly harbored the ambition of liberating Taiwan by military force next year, which marks both the first year of President Xi's fourth term in power and the centenary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. This reality is well reflected in Beijing's recent push to overhaul the National Defense Mobilization Law for the first time in 16 years, an effort needed to swiftly transition peacetime industrial, technological, and human resources into defense capabilities during contingencies.

Under such circumstances, tightening discipline across the military's top echelon is an urgent priority. Malpractice such as corruption and leaks of military secrets can under no circumstances be tolerated. Judging by various developments, it is clear that leadership is determined to maintain a firm grip. The analysis that the Chinese military is being hollowed out by relentless purges is by no means unfounded.

                                                                                                           Hong Soon-do