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A view of downtown Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, where the APEC summit will be held. The atmosphere is already heating up over the possibility of a U.S.-China-Russia summit. / Xinhua News Agency

Prospects are rising for a trilateral summit among three strongmen—U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin—on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for mid-November in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. If realized, it would mark an unprecedented event that is expected to bring tectonic shifts to the geopolitical landscape.  

According to diplomatic sources in Beijing well versed in international affairs, including U.S.-China-Russia relations, on the 2nd, the likelihood of their meeting can be considered quite high. The reasons are numerous. Foremost among them are remarks by Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy aide to the Russian Kremlin. In an interview with Russian state broadcaster Vesti, Ushakov clearly noted that the matter was discussed during a bilateral meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders held on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which concluded its two-day run in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on the 1st.  

Remarks made in July by Marat Berdyev, ambassador-at-large at the Russian Foreign Ministry, also carry significant weight. He stated that President Putin plans to personally lead the Russian delegation to visit China to attend the APEC summit in November. In that case, it would be unusual if a trilateral meeting with President Trump—who has virtually confirmed his attendance—and President Xi does not materialize.Compounding this is the assessment that President Xi will do whatever it takes to secure President Putin's attendance at the APEC summit to elevate China's international standing, further raising the odds of the three-way meeting. 

Indeed, Xi is known to have remarked at the SCO summit that President Trump will attend APEC and President Putin is also likely to participate as an invited guest.  

If the trilateral summit takes place, the war in Ukraine will almost certainly top the agenda. The conflict involving Iran is also likely to be addressed. With China expected to actively mediate, the possibility of tangible breakthroughs leading toward an end to the fighting cannot be ruled out. This is particularly plausible given that both the U.S. and Russia inwardly desire to bring their respective conflicts to a close.  

U.S.-North Korea relations, including the potential for a summit between North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un and President Trump, go without saying. Considering President Trump's strong determination to hold talks with Chairman Kim, the issue is certain to be discussed as a major agenda item. While a four-way meeting would be even better should Chairman Kim visit Shenzhen in November, the likelihood of that scenario remains slim.

At present, neither the White House nor Zhongnanhai in Beijing has issued an official stance on the trilateral summit. However, the possibility remains that they may state their positions in some form in the near future. 

As Professor Fang Changping of the Department of Political Science at Renmin University noted, "If a trilateral summit takes place, it will be a historic watershed event," underscoring why Beijing's diplomatic circles are watching the prospect of this unprecedented gathering with keen interest.  

                                                                                                          Hong Soon-do