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President Lee Jae-myung and the new leadership of the Democratic Party of Korea head to the venue for a dinner meeting held at Cheong Wa Dae on the 25th. From left: Democratic Party Leader Kim Min-seok, President Lee Jae-myung, and Floor Leader Han Byung-do. / Yonhap News

President Lee Jae-myung's state affairs approval rating has dropped into the 30% range for the first time since taking office. As his rating—which once neared 70%—slumped in just over five months, speculation is growing that he may seek to regain public trust through personnel overhauls, including a cabinet reshuffle and the replacement of Cheong Wa Dae aides.

According to a survey conducted by pollster Jowon C&I on 2,001 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide from the 22nd to the 24th at the request of Straight News on the 26th, positive assessments of President Lee's state administration stood at 38.9%. This represents a 4.0 percentage point drop from the 42.9% recorded in the previous survey (August 8–10). Negative assessments rose 3.8 percentage points over the same period to 57.9%.

In the survey, positive evaluations of President Lee peaked at 66.1% in early April, but followed a steady downward trend, shedding 27.2 percentage points over five months. In particular, negative assessments outpaced positive ratings even among voters in their 40s and 50s, who are classified as his core support base, meaning negative reviews prevailed across all age demographics.

As the decline in approval ratings steepens, the clock for a cabinet reshuffle is expected to accelerate. Possibilities are being raised that a mid-to-large scale overhaul—encompassing the appointment of new ministers for the recently vacant Justice Ministry and the Ministry of SMEs and Startups, as well as the replacement of Cheong Wa Dae staff—could be carried out as early as next month.

Initially, observers in and around Cheong Wa Dae gave more weight to a potential reshuffle early next year, considering regular National Assembly schedules such as the October parliamentary audit and the processing of next year's national budget. However, analysts note that the urgency to reset the administrative momentum early on has grown with the approval rating dipping into the 30% range.

Still, Cheong Wa Dae is wary of overinterpretation, cautioning that neither the timing nor the scope of a reshuffle has been determined. A Cheong Wa Dae official stated, "The timing and scale of a cabinet reshuffle have not been decided," adding, "The current sentiment is to recover approval ratings through tangible achievements, such as fine-tuning real estate tax policies to reflect public sentiment and allocating next year's budget effectively so the public can feel the difference."

Regarding the recent drop in approval ratings, Cheong Wa Dae announced, "Putting public livelihood and the economy as top priorities, we will closely examine all aspects of state administration to ensure that the lives of our citizens improve and that they can genuinely feel the progress, making every effort to produce tangible results."

Meanwhile, the survey was conducted via automated response system (ARS) telephone interviews (100% mobile RDD method with proportional quota random sampling by gender, age group, and region), with a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For further details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

                                                                                                             Hong Sun-mi