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Members of the 20th Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, led by General Secretary and State President Xi Jinping, following their election at the 20th National Congress in October 2022. Xi's loyalists are expected to fill top Party and government leadership positions once again at the 21st National Congress next October.

The lineup for the top Party and government leadership to be elected at the 21st National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (held every five years), scheduled for next October, is reportedly virtually finalized. It can be confidently stated that the defining characteristic of this lineup is the comprehensive deployment of figures loyal to General Secretary and State President Xi Jinping (73).

According to Beijing sources familiar with Chinese political information on July 30, General Secretary and State President Xi Jinping, alongside Premier Li Qiang (67)—his close aide for over 25 years who will remain alongside Xi as he continues to hold the presidency—are set to remain in their positions as the top two figures in the Party and government hierarchy. In Premier Li's case, although he spent much of his earlier career serving in his hometown of Zhejiang Province as a local official, his appointment under Xi when the latter became governor in 2002 established a bond that has now led to a decade-long tenure as the number two in power.

Following President Xi and Premier Li, Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang (64) and Beijing Party Secretary Yin Li (64) are considered leading candidates for Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) and Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which rank third and fourth in authority. Aside from both being members of the Xi Faction (Xijiajun)—having served President Xi for over a decade—it is noteworthy that both are of the same age. Naturally, incumbent NPC Chairman Zhao Leji (69) and CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning (71) will step back into second-tier roles. One of them is highly likely to be granted the position of Vice President as a courtesy extended to former top leaders.

In addition, key positions such as First Secretary of the Secretariat and Director of the General Office (equivalent to Chief of Staff to the General Secretary), Executive Vice Premier, and Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection are virtually set to be filled by Li Shulei (62), Secretary of the Secretariat and member of Xi's core inner circle; Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing (62); and Chen Wenqing (66), Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission. If these projections materialize as expected, they will consecutively occupy the 5th through 7th ranks in the Party and government hierarchy.

All of these officials, along with Beijing Party Secretary Yin Li, will advance from Politburo members to the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, the highest decision-making body of the Party. In this scenario, with the exception of Executive Vice Premier Ding—who is slated to become NPC Standing Committee Chairman—Secretaries Cai Qi (71) and Li Xi (70) will inevitably step down. However, given that Secretary Cai assumed the directorship of the Central Party School, an educational institution for senior party officials, early this year, he is expected to serve out a remaining term of up to three years. Considering his long-standing active role as a member of the Xi Faction, this projection appears reasonably sound.

Directly below the top seven ranks, the 24-member Politburo is also virtually certain to be filled mostly by figures aligned with Xi Jinping. Looking at the lineup, Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining (62), a former president of Tsinghua University; Vice Premier Liu Guozhong (64); and Tianjin Party Secretary Chen Min'er (66) immediately stand out. Even if they do not secure seats on the Standing Committee, they are certain to retain their current positions. Considering that Secretary Chen was once mentioned as a potential successor to President Xi, their current status is exceptionally clear.

The remaining 14 Politburo seats are highly likely to be newly filled by rising figures of the Xi Faction across various sectors. Representative examples include Zhang Shengmin (68), Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission; General Yang Zhibin (63), Commander of the People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command; Meng Xiangfeng (64), Deputy Director of the General Office; and Xu Lin (65), Guizhou Province Party Secretary. The fact that they survived while other top-tier competitors across the Party, government, and military fell from grace after being branded as corrupt elements demonstrates that their survival was by no means accidental. Their close ties with President Xi need no further elaboration.

The heavy deployment of President Xi's loyalists across the next top Party and government leadership is also clearly evident in the projected quiet departure of Hu Chunhua (65), Vice Chairman of the CPPCC, who was once dubbed the crown prince of former General Secretary and State President Hu Jintao (84). This is all the more striking given that rumors of him becoming Xi's successor were widespread just a decade ago.

However, from Hu's perspective, simply retiring safely from his position as CPPCC Vice Chairman—a post he barely attained while retaining his political life—might be something to be grateful for. Considering that his political rival and peer Sun Zhengcai (65), former Chongqing Party Secretary and once considered a premier candidate, fell from grace eight years ago, was sentenced to life imprisonment, and remains behind bars to this day, such an assessment carries substantial weight.

President Xi Jinping is renowned as a strongman who even U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin find formidable. The power enabling this stems unreservedly from the strong, unwavering support and loyalty of his inner circle, including the Xi Faction and another key power base, the Crown Prince Faction (Princelings, descendants of high-ranking Party and government officials). It can be confidently concluded that the forward placement of President Xi's line in China's next top Party and government leadership is an entirely natural outcome.

                                                                                                            Hong Soon-do