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President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil / AFP Yonhap News

As Brazil prepares for its presidential election in October, a recent poll shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading conservative challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party.

On July 29 (local time), Bloomberg News reported, citing survey results from Brazilian polling firm AtlasIntel, that President Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 6 percentage points in a runoff scenario featuring the top two candidates, with Lula recording 49% and Bolsonaro 43%.

In AtlasIntel's first-round approval rating survey, President Lula also led with 44.9%, while Senator Bolsonaro stood at 35.8% and new political party leader Renan Santos garnered only 7.8%. Under Brazilian election law, if no candidate receives a majority (50%) in the first round, the top two candidates advance to a runoff election.

Senator Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, officially entered this presidential race as the Liberal Party candidate. Declaring he would inherit his father's political legacy, he emerged as the leading figure of the conservative camp. However, his approval ratings dropped as his image was tarnished by a bankrupt bank scandal and conflicts with his mother, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

Until early May, he and President Lula were neck and neck in approval ratings. However, late that month, recordings revealed he had requested funding for a movie about his father from the former CEO of Banco Master, a bankrupt bank, sending his approval ratings into a downward trend.

Then in June, family conflicts were exposed publicly when Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video on social media saying she had been "insulted by Flávio." Although they later reconciled, he was left with a negative public image as a figure who "cannot even unify his own family."

By contrast, President Lula strengthened direct support policies, including cash handouts for low-income earners and expanded social welfare.

Furthermore, when the U.S. imposed new tariffs on Brazilian steel and aluminum, President Lula openly confronted U.S. President Donald Trump with a firm response. In the process, his message of "protecting Brazilian industry" resonated strongly with the public, helping rally his base. Consequently, his approval rating rose by approximately 2 percentage points compared to a poll conducted a month earlier.

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted via internet questionnaire from July 22 to 27 among 5,021 respondents, with a margin of error of ±1 percentage point.

                                                                                                             Park Jin-sook