Births edge up, but world’s lowest persists

Jan 02, 2026, 08:30 am

South Korea’s recent uptick in births has raised hopes that the total fertility rate could recover to the 0.8 range, but analysts warn that without a fundamental shift in how the country addresses population decline, the rebound is unlikely to last.

Experts say the nation’s fertility rate—still the lowest in the world—has become a destabilizing force across labor markets, welfare systems, and even national security. They argue that moving beyond short-term pro-natalist incentives toward a structural transformation of work, housing, care, and social protections is now unavoidable.

Population decline shakes society’s foundations

According to the National Data Portal, the total fertility rate in October last year stood at 0.81, up 0.02 from a year earlier. For January through October, the average hovered around 0.80.

South Korea’s population, about 51.6 million in 2024, is projected to shrink to roughly 37 million by 2070 if current trends persist. The pace of change is the problem. The working-age population (15–64) has been declining since 2018, while the number of people aged 65 and older reached 10 million in July 2024. By December that year, the country officially entered a “super-aged” society, with seniors accounting for more than 20% of the population.

The old-age dependency ratio is expected to surge from 27.4 in 2024 to 104.2 by 2072—meaning each working-age person would effectively support more than one elderly individual.

The impact is already visible. Nearly 72% of workers in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are aged 60 or older. The National Assembly Futures Institute warns that a shrinking workforce will contract domestic demand and erode growth potential. Security concerns are also rising, with the male population in their 20s projected to fall from 3.23 million in 2025 to 1.42 million by 2072.

Meanwhile, single-person households reached 7.83 million in 2023, or 35.5% of all households. Those aged 50 and above already account for more than half, a share expected to climb to 77.1% by 2072—intensifying pressure on care, healthcare, and housing safety nets.

Beyond ‘encouraging births’ to structural change

After plunging to a record low of 0.72 in 2023, South Korea’s fertility rate rose to 0.75 in 2024 and to 0.81 by October 2025. Specialists caution that the increase likely reflects a post-pandemic rise in marriages combined with policy effects—and does not yet signal a durable turnaround.

The government has reframed low fertility as a challenge requiring systemic change, shifting away from birth-focused incentives toward simultaneous reforms in jobs, housing, childcare, and labor structures. Budgets are rising accordingly: the Ministry of Health and Welfare’s allocation increased 9.6% year on year for 2026, while spending on children and childcare jumped 17%, and senior-related budgets also expanded.

Professor Hong Seok-cheol of Seoul National University says fertility is less a policy target than a barometer of deeper social conditions. “Korean society has already passed the point of easy reversal and entered an era of contraction,” he said. “If policies consistently improve the overall quality of life for younger generations, fertility will follow naturally—and society as a whole can improve in the process.”

#fertility rate #population decline #aging society #quality of life #youth policy