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PPP leadership contenders Kim Moon-soo (left), Jang Dong-hyuk, and Ahn Cheol-soo campaign separately on Aug. 21, one day before the party convention. Candidate Cho Kyung-tae (bottom right) speaks in an Aug. 20 interview about his vision for party reform. / Source: Yonhap News, Ahn Cheol-soo’s campaign, Lee Byung-hwa

The leadership race for the People Power Party (PPP) is shaping up into a two-way contest between Kim Moon-soo and Jang Dong-hyuk, with political insiders eyeing three key variables — voter turnout, pro-Han Dong-hoon faction support, and the “Jeon Han-gil effect.”

Recent polls show Kim with a slight edge, but not enough to secure a majority, raising the likelihood of a runoff on Aug. 26 following the party convention in Cheongju on Aug. 22.

Turnout is expected to be the biggest determinant. Analysts say higher participation could favor “pro-impeachment” candidates such as Ahn Cheol-soo and Cho Kyung-tae, as broader voter engagement could offset consolidation among hardline conservatives. Conversely, lower turnout is expected to benefit Jang, who enjoys strong support from the party’s conservative base.

Another variable is the support base of former party leader Han Dong-hoon, who won 43.47% in the last primary. While Han’s supporters remain influential, divisions among pro-impeachment candidates Ahn and Cho, coupled with Jang’s sharp criticism of Han’s ally Jeon Han-gil during campaign speeches, may drive pro-Han voters away from Jang. Observers predict many could instead gravitate toward Kim, who has emphasized party unity.

Jeon Han-gil, whose “betrayer incident” at a joint campaign rally drew national attention, has since openly endorsed Jang, energizing conservative hardliners. Some polls now show Jang closing the gap with Kim or even pulling ahead. However, if turnout rises, anti-Jeon sentiment among broader members could produce a backlash, boosting Kim or other pro-impeachment candidates.

Meanwhile, the party’s election committee reported that as of 7 p.m. on Aug. 20, mobile turnout among members had already reached a record 37.51% on the first day of voting. Automated phone (ARS) voting continued until 10 p.m. for those who had not participated via mobile.