PPP’s Oh far ahead of ruling candidate in latest poll

Mar 29, 2021, 08:02 am

AsiaToday reporter Lee Jang-won

Ten days before the April 7 by-election to choose Seoul’s next mayor, the single opposition candidate Oh Se-hoon has 31.4 percentage point lead over his ruling Democratic Party (DP) opponent Park Young-sun, a poll showed Sunday.

The latest poll result is garnering attention since it was revealed just before the ban on publicizing public opinion results beginning on April 1. The last-minute variables are expected to be the generally-low election turnout for by-election and the number of conservative and progressive voters who are willing to vote in this election. Besides, a TV debate scheduled for March 30, and public sentiment toward real estate market is expected to become variables as well.

According to the R&Search survey on March 26 and 27, Oh gained 63 percent support and Park sootd at 31.6 percent support of respondents in the two-way race. As supporters of pan-progressive and pan-conservative blocs decided to unify their forces on their candidates for the election, minor candidates apparently failed to show their presence.

The survey found that Oh received overwhelming support among supporters of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), People’s Party, seniors aged 60 or older and those living in southeastern Seoul. Among respondents aged 60 or older living in southeastern Seoul, 88.2% of male and 87% of female respondents showed support for Oh, while only 5.9% of male and 13% of female respondents showed support for Park.

On the other hand, Park received strong support from women in their 20s, 30s and 40s living in southwestern Seoul with 60%, 47.1% and 48.1% of support, respectively. Female respondents in their 20s, 40s and 50s living in northwestern Seoul showed support for Park with 54.5%, 62.5%, and 60% of support, respectively. Park also got significant support from women in their 20s as well as those in their 40s living in northeastern Seoul with support of 53.8% and 59%, respectively.

However, there was a gap of 47% from respondents aged 60 or older, accounting for 27.1% of total voters in Seoul. While 70.1% of them showed support for Oh, 23.1% supported Park. In particular, there was a wider gap of 48.8% of support among those living in southeastern Seoul, with 72.5% showing support for Oh and 23.7% showing support for Park. “Oh needs a strategy that focuses on increasing turnout in the Southeastern region and among those aged 60 or older,” said R&Search head Kim Mi-hyun. “Park needs to focus on northwestern and southwestern regions to unite progressives once again,” Kim said.

Commissioned by AsiaToday, the poll had a confidence level of 95 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

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