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History lecturer Jeon Han-gil (left) speaks with PPP leadership candidate Kim Moon-soo during his sit-in protest at the party’s headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, on August 18. / Source: Lee Byung-hwa

With just days left before the People Power Party (PPP) convention on August 22, speculation is mounting over a possible last-minute merger between candidates Ahn Cheol-soo and Jo Kyung-tae. Their decision could prove decisive in shaping the outcome.

Within the party, the anti-impeachment camp currently holds the lead, but no single candidate is polling above 50 percent. If the pro-impeachment faction—represented by Ahn and Jo—joins forces, analysts say the race could head to a runoff.

A Gallup Korea poll conducted from August 12 to 14 among PPP supporters and independents showed Kim Moon-soo leading with 31 percent, followed by Jang Dong-hyuk at 14 percent. Ahn trailed at 14 percent, while Jo secured 8 percent. Since party members account for 80 percent of the vote, anti-impeachment candidates are expected to maintain their advantage unless the pro-impeachment side consolidates.

Former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon fueled the unity debate on August 16, writing on Facebook: “At this rate, the People Power Party will be abandoned by the public. Only solidarity and sacrifice among reasonable candidates can revive hope.” His remarks were widely seen as a call for Ahn and Jo to merge.

But the two candidates remain split. Speaking at the National Assembly press center on August 18, Jo declared, “The door to unification is open. The procedure and format will be left to Ahn, but I will wait until midnight for his answer.” He added that his strong support among moderates makes him the strategic choice.

Ahn, however, reaffirmed his independence, telling reporters after a debate, “My advance to the runoff is certain. If we unify, the voice of innovation will only weaken.”

The two also diverge on reform strategies. Jo has pledged a sweeping purge of lawmakers close to former President Yoon Suk-yeol, while Ahn cautioned against labeling too many as targets of reform. Their responses to the ongoing special counsel probe further underscored the differences: Jo appeared in person to state his case, while Ahn refused to attend.

Political observers suggest that a “runoff unity” scenario—where both remain in the race but pledge support to whichever makes it to the final round—is the most feasible compromise. While this allows both to retain candidacy until the end, it offers less impact in rallying early support.

The PPP will hold its third televised debate for leadership candidates on August 19. Voting by party members and a public opinion poll will follow on August 20–21, with the convention set for August 22. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, a runoff between the top two will take place.