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In the final poll released before the official blackout period for the June 3 presidential election, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) candidate Kim Moon-soo failed to establish a decisive lead over Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung even in traditional conservative strongholds—Daegu/North Gyeongsang (TK) and Busan/Ulsan/South Gyeongsang (PK). Notably, among respondents who said they are “certain to vote,” Lee’s support stood at 50%, outpacing Kim’s 39% by 11 percentage points, suggesting a potentially wider gap in actual ballots cast.

According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Korea Public Reputation Research Institute (KOPRA) on May 27 and commissioned by Asia Today, Kim led in TK with 51% to Lee’s 37%. However, in PK, the gap narrowed to 48% for Kim versus 42% for Lee—outside the margin of error, but far from commanding.

In the capital region (Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon), the race remained too close to call, within the margin of error. Overall, the data indicate that Kim is struggling to secure a solid advantage even in core conservative regions, weakening his national standing.

By voting intention, Lee held a strong lead among those “certain to vote,” with 50% support compared to Kim’s 39%. Among those who said they “might vote,” Kim led with 54% to Lee’s 30%. For those not planning to vote, both candidates scored in the high 20% to low 30% range.

The numbers suggest a potential enthusiasm gap in Kim’s conservative base. KOPRA head Hyun Kyung-bo noted, “At the actual polls, the candidate with stronger support among ‘certain voters’ tends to win more votes,” adding, “If the PPP fails to rally its base, it may find it difficult to secure victory in the election.”

The survey used an automated response system (ARS) via wireless random digit dialing (RDD). It collected 1,000 responses from 11,688 contacted adults aged 18 and older nationwide. The response rate was 8.6%, with demographic weighting based on April 2025 Ministry of Interior resident registration data. The margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Full details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.