Analysis: Approval ratings of parties targeting PR slots

Apr 08, 2020, 10:03 am

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By AsiaToday reporters Lim Yoo-jin & Kim Yeon-ji

A new poll showed that the United Future Party’s satellite Future Korea Party (FKP) will likely to win 15 to 20 proportional representation (PR) slots in the April 15 general election, followed by Together Citizens’ Party with 13 to 15 seats, and the Open Minjoo Party with 7 seats. The Justice Party is predicted to win 3 to 4 seats while the People’s Party to grab 1 or 2 seats. With the introduction of the new PR system, 35 political parties are participating in the PR vote to win 47 slots. The satellite parties of the country’s two biggest parties, the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the main opposition United Future Party (UFP), are expected to take more than half of the PR seats.

The survey was conducted by R&Search from March 28 to March 31. Commissioned by AsiaToday, the survey had a confidence level of 95 percent with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.

The survey found that 30.7 percent said they intend to vote for the FKP in PR votes. Nineteen-point-seven percent said they will vote for the DP-linked Together Citizens’ Party. Thirteen-point-seven percent of respondents said they will vote for another pro-Moon Jae-in proportional party Open Minjoo Party. Six-point-six percent said they will vote for the minor Justice Party, while five percent said they would vote for the People’s Party.

If the number of seats is calculated on the basis of the approval rating of proportional parties, the FKP, which has the highest approval rating, is expected to occupy the largest number of seats with at least 15 to 20 seats. Then, the two DP-linked proportional parties are expected to take up to 22 seats. The minor opposition Party for People’s Livelihood (PPL), which has less than 3 percent of approval rating, is not likely to win any PR seats. 

“Both the UFP’s satellite FKP and the DP’s satellite Together Citizens’ Party are expected to win at least 15 and 13 seats, respectively. It means the nation’s two major parties are expected to take nearly 30 seats,” R&Search Director Kim Mi-hyun told AsiaToday in a phone interview. “A party has to secure at least 3 percent of the total votes cast to secure a proportional representation seat. Therefore, minor parties are unlikely to win seats.”

The Open Minjoo Party ranks third in approval rating for proportional party, showing a strong presence. Some experts say the party may rise suddenly like the People’s Party four years ago, by putting up candidates who can attract key supporters of Moon Jae-in.

The FKP had the highest support among all age groups except for those in their 40s. Among respondents above 60 years of age, 40.1 percent showed support for the FKP, followed by Together Citizens’ Party with 15 percent, and Open Minjoo Party with 11.6 percent. Among those in their 50s, who hold a casting vote in the upcoming elections, the FKP takes the lead with 35.8 percent, ahead of Together Citizens’ Party with 20.1 percent and Open Minjoo Party with 15.5 percent.

Among those in their 30s, support for the FKP stood at 26 percent, followed by Together Citizens’ Party with 21.1 percent, and Open Minjoo Party with 13.8 percent. Among respondents under age 29 years, support for the FKP reached 25.9 percent while for Together Citizens’ Party stood at 19.7 percent and Open Minjoo Party with 10.9 percent. On the other hand, those in their 40s showed the highest support for Together Citizens’ Party with 26.7 percent, followed by the FKP with 20.7 percent and Open Minjoo Party with 17.2 percent. 

In Seoul, the biggest battlefield, support for FKP was 29.3 percent, followed by Together Citizens’ Party with 20.1 percent, and Open Minjoo Party with 14.9 percent. 

#support #proportional representation #April 15 #general election #FKP 
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