Predictions for 253 constituency races

Apr 07, 2020, 09:30 am

By AsiaToday reporter Lim Yoo-jin

With eight days until the April 15 general election, the ruling Democratic Party (DP) considers its candidates to have the upper hand in 89 out of the 253 constituencies, while the main opposition United Future Party (UFP) considers victories likely in 68 constituencies. As nearly 96 constituencies are expected to be neck-and-neck races, the outcome of the upcoming election remains uncertain.

AsiaToday has predicted Monday the outcome of the 253 constituency races based on its own polls and election polls registered in the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.

The ruling party anticipated that it will win in 20 constituencies in Seoul, 22 in Gyeonggi, 2 in Incheon, 8 in Gwangju, 8 in South Jeolla, 9 in North Jeolla, 3 in North Chungcheong, 2 in Sejong, 4 in Daejeon, 7 in South Chungcheong, and 4 in Gangwon and Jeju. The conservative UFP believes it will win in 5 constituencies in Seoul, 4 in Gyeonggi, 9 in Daegu, 12 in North Gyeongsang, 13 in Busan, 6 in Ulsan, 11 in South Gyeongsang, 2 in North Chungcheong, 2 in Daejeon, and 1 in South Chungcheong.

Of Seoul’s 49 seats, the ruling party has identified 20 constituencies it believes it will win, mostly located in Gangbuk Belt, or the area north of the Han River, including Jongno, Dongdaemun-A, Gangbuk-B, Nowon-B, Jungrang-A, Jungrang-B, and Seodaemun-A. The UFP believes it has the upper hand in 5 constituencies in Gangnam region, including Gangnam-B, Gangnam-C, Seocho-A, Seocho-B, and Songpa-A. The most contested battlefields for the two parties in Seoul will be Dongjak-B, Gwangjin-B, Yangcheon-A, and Mapo-A.

In Gyeonggi, which has 59 constituencies, the ruling party says it has the lead in 22 while the main opposition says four. The DP’s leading constituencies include Suwon-A, Suwon-B, Bucheon-A, and Hwaseong-B. The UFP’s leading constituencies include Anseong, Dongducheon & Yeonchon, and Gimpo-B. In Gyeonggi, the political parties are expected to have a neck-and-neck race in 33 constituencies, including Goyang-A and Goyang-D.

In Incheon with 13 seats, the DP has the lead in 2, including Gyeyang-A and Gyeyang-B. The UFP says it has no lead.

In their traditional strongholds, both the DP and the UFP are expecting dominating victories. For Honam - the DP’s traditional support base - the ruling party believes 25 of the region’s 28 seats to be certain wins. The UFP believes it won’t win any seats in Honam region.

On the other hand, the UFP expects voters to choose its candidates in 20 out of the 25 constituencies in Daegu and North Gyeongsang region. In Busan, the main opposition considers it will win 13 of 18 seats. Of Ulsan’s 6 seats, the UFP expects it will win all of them. In South Gyeongsang, the UFP believes it has the upper hand in 11 out of the 16 constituencies. There was no constituency in Gyeongsang region favorable to the ruling party.

In Chungcheong, which has 28 constituencies, the DP believes it will win 13 seats while the UFP expects to win five.

In Gangwon, the DP says it has the lead in 2 out of 8 constituencies while the UFP says three. Of Jeju’s 3 seats, 2 seats are likely to be taken by the DP.

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