April 15 general election depends on turnout among voters in 50s, 60s

Apr 06, 2020, 09:42 am

By AsiaToday reporter Lim Yoo-jin

The voter turnout among people in their 50s and 60s is expected to be the key to the upcoming April 15 general elections. According to the list of voters for the elections by the National Election Commission announced Sunday, the number of eligible voters in their 50s came to 8,649,821, or 19.7 percent of the total, making up the largest group of voters by age. The number of voters in their 60s and 70s accounted for 14.6 percent and 12.7 percent, respectively, accounting for 27.3 percent. Therefore, voters in their 50s and 60s are expected to play a pivotal role to determine winners in the upcoming elections.

At the request of AsiaToday, R&Search surveyed people for three days on Mar. 28, 29, and 31 to find out their voting intention. According to the poll, 53.9 percent of respondents said they are willing to vote. 34.2 percent said they are floating voters, while 10.3 percent said they will not go to a polling station to cast ballots. 1.7 percent of respondents said they are uncertain.

What’s catching your eyes is that the number of swing voters in their 50s and 60s was 10 percent point higher than any other age groups. Therefore they key to the upcoming election would be how many of them will go to vote.

Among those in their 50s, 53.9 percent were certain voters and 36.5 percent were swing voters, while 7.2 percent said they will not cast ballots. 2.4 percent said they were unsure. “Among people in their 50s, who hold a casting vote in the 21st general election, 53.9 percent are certain to vote for a certain party or candidate. This indicates that the progressives are more likely to unite than the conservatives,” an official from R&Search said.

Among people aged 60 and over, 44.3 percent were certain voters and 48.2 percent were swing voters. 6.1 percent said they are not willing to vote and 1.5 percent said they were unsure. “We expect that winners of the upcoming election will be determined by the turnout of the people aged 60 and over,” the official said.

The poll showed that those in their 30s and 40s, who show clear support for liberals, have high voting intention. Among people in their 30s, 63.2 percent were certain to vote and 22.9 percent were swing voters while 12.8 percent were unwilling to vote. Among people in their 40s, 59.2 percent were certain to vote, 28.2 percent undecided, 11 percent unwilling, and 1.4 percent unsure. According to the list of eligible voters, people in their 40s accounted for 19 percent of the total, followed by those in their 30s and 20s with 15.9 percent and 15.1 percent, respectively. Those aged 18 and 19 accounted for 2.6 percent.

The poll showed that all the age groups have already decided which party or candidate to support. 76.9 percent of respondents said they support a particular political party, while 15.8 percent said they don’t. Among those in their 50s, 80.9 percent said they support a particular party while 13.5 percent said they don’t. Among those in their 60s and over, 76.7 percent said they do while 13.4 percent said they don’t. Among respondents in their 30s, 80.4 percent said they do and 15.8 percent said they don’t. Among those in their 40s, 78.2 percent said they do while 15.8 percent said they don’t. Among those aged under 30, 68.3 percent said they do while 21. 7 percent said they don’t.

Experts say voter turnout may be low due to the COVID-19 outbreak; however it won’t be favorable or unfavorable to any parties. The conventional notion that a drop in the turnout will bring advantage to the conservatives is no longer valid. Rather, experts say the opposite could happen. “Even if voter turnout is lower than previous elections, those in their 30s and 40s have strong voting intention. And voter turnout is high among support class of the Democratic Party,” said R&Search director Kim Mi-hyun. “In fact, 60.4 percent said they will support the ruling Democratic Party (DP) while 54.8 percent said they will support the main opposition Future United Party.”

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