US midterm elections: Polls show Republicans losing House, keeping Senate

Nov 07, 2018, 09:40 am

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The U.S. midterm election has kicked off Tuesday. The midterm elections will elect 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the House and 36 of 50 governors.

By AsiaToday reporter Lee Min-young & Washington correspondent Ha Man-joo

The U.S. midterm election has kicked off Tuesday. When the 2018 midterm election ends, the U.S. political world will gear up for the 2020 presidential race. A major focus is whether the ruling Republicans will secure both the houses of the US congress in this election. However, many are also paying attention to whether the midterm elections will be the midterm of the women, as there is a record number of female candidates running for office. 

The midterm elections will elect 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate, all 435 seats in the House and 36 of 50 governors. Voters across the U.S. will flock to polling places to cast ballots for the first time since the presidential election in 2016, allowing them to evaluate the last two years of the Trump administration. The elections will begin at 5 a.m. in Vermont and end at 11 p.m. in Hawaii, Eastern Standard Time. 

The focus of the 2018 midterm election is whether the Republicans will secure the upper and lower houses of Congress. As of Monday, various polls and election gurus forecast that Democrats will win control of the House, while Republics will keep control of the Senate.

FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis site, projected on Monday that Democrats have an 87.5 percent chance of winning control of the House, while there’s an 83.2 percent chance that Republicans keep control of the Senate. The Real Clear Politics showed 194 House seats titling toward Republicans, and 202 tilting Democratic, with 39 in the “toss-up” column. It put 50 Senate seats in the Republican column, and 43 in the Democratic column. Seven races are marked as “toss-ups.” 

Early voting continues to be explosive. As of Monday morning, over 31 million people have voted early. That’s far more than the 19 million who voted early at this point during the 2014 midterms. The share of early voters under the age of 30 has increased significantly this year, compared to the previous cycles, in at least 10 states. Besides, female voters who favor Democrats make up a larger percent of the early vote in most of the states. 

The 2018 midterm election is shaping up to be a battle between pro- and anti-Trump voters with Trump’s Trumpism. Generally, presidents with low approval rating remain in the background ahead of midterm elections. However, Trump has come to the front focusing on the booming US economy and the lowest unemployment rates with anti-immigrant rhetoric to unify shy Trump fans, making the midterm election a nationwide referendum on himself.  

On the other hand, Democrats are trying to solidify their position based on a mobilized base of female voters. According to a CNN poll, 62% of women voters favor Democrats while 35% favor Republicans. In particular, 79% of non-white women favor Democrats. It is no wonder that 200 of the 260 women running are Democrats. 

#US midterm elections #Republicans #Democrats #House #Senate 
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